The latest round of high profile media attention on aviation-related security issues has the potential to adversely affect the tenuous recovery in lease rentals should such issues persist or manifest into terrorist action.
Prior to the current spate of problems, the industry was beginning to exhibit solid performance in the second half of 2003. A stronger world economy, a recovery in the stock market and renewed consumer confidence has filtered through to the aviation community. The effects of SARS and Iraq were overcome and traffic levels began to climb, particularly on long haul flights. Yields also improved. The weakening dollar has benefited those paying lease rentals or finance in dollars but receiving revenues in other currencies, though the potential rise in interest rates remains. The launch of new low-fare carriers by the U.S. majors has provided a means of retaining existing equipment while also coming to terms with new market realities. However, some U.S. majors are still finding trading conditions difficult such that the prospect of Chapter 11 bankruptcy will continue to generate pessimism.
The number of new orders has remained low such that Airbus and Boeing [NYSE: BA] continue to fight hard battles for each order, particularly those for widebodies. The launch of the B7E7 in all but name represents a key turning point for Boeing as it struggles to compete with a still vibrant Airbus. Both manufacturers are now having to consider the problems associated with replacing ageing models at a time of market weakness.
The listing of current and future values below are based on the year of build. The essential assumption is that the aircraft is being sold as a single unit between a willing seller and willing buyer for cash. The high and low figures for Oct. 31 current values represent adjustments for offer and sale prices, financing arrangements, specification differences, maintenance status and condition. These are not absolutes and distressed sales as well as sale and leaseback transactions may fall outside the figures indicated. Some transactions involving distressed sales on fully run-out aircraft are considered exceptional and can fall outside the value ranges. Scrap values are also likely to fall outside the indicated range of values. Quantity discounts, particularly for the larger equipment, will attract discounts of at least 15-20 percent as a matter of course.
The values quoted below were prepared in late October in the context of an improving market. The values listed below are market values, not theoretical base values and seek to balance transaction pricing, where available, and the considered worth of the asset.
The quoted future values attempt to predict cyclic trends when supply will exceed demand and vice versa. Values may experience a rise as well as a fall in any projected year. In addition to values, an aircraft rating is included for all aircraft types. The aircraft ratings, ranging from highest A++ to the lowest E–, reflects The Aircraft Value Analysis Company‘s opinion as to the relative attraction of the asset over the short to medium term and is determined by a number of variables ranging from product life cycles to levels of availability.
The future values – four and seven years from 2003 – are expressed in current U.S. dollars having been adjusted for inflation and are based on the mid-case current values. For Stage 2 aircraft no future values are provided beyond this year unless hushed. Future values for hushkitted aircraft are however, provided.
The figures are for guidance only and are not intended to reflect actual recent market transactions – assuming that any reliable data exists. Rather the values represent the considered worth of the aircraft tempered by the prevailing market conditions. (Values are given in millions of U.S. dollars.)
The data has been extracted from the October 31, 2003, edition of the semi-annual Aircraft Value Reference 2003-2023, priced $1,250.00, by courtesy of The Aircraft Value Analysis Company. Telephone: +44 1789 730283, Fax: +44 1789 730309, E-mail: [email protected], Internet http://www.aircraftvalues.net.
The A300B2-200 has been relegated to the parting out market for a number of years such that its relevance to asset-based financing has long since been lost. The type, however, demonstrated all too well the problem of associating long-term residual value to an initial and marginalized variant.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1976 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | – |
| 1978 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | – |
| 1980 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1982 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
The -100 fared slightly better than the B2-200 in that it was perceived to be suited to the freighter conversion market. An upgrade to a -200 was possible but relatively few conversions took place. The type has little or no relevance to the market, even though the youngest examples are just over 20 years of age.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1974 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | – | – |
| 1976 | 1.0 | 2.01 | 2.4 | 1.0 | – |
| 1978 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | – |
| 1980 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
A type that established Airbus as a viable competitor to the then mighty Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. Whereas earlier variants of the A300 were used as the basis for proving the concept of a twin-engined widebody, the B4-200 pushed the model into the mainstream. Values are facing a very tough time, though it is not totally down and out.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1975 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 3.2 | – | – |
| 1977 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | – |
| 1979 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1981 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 1983 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
The A300F4-200 still suffers from virtual constant excess, though there always appear to be willing lessees eager to take advantage of a fluctuating airfreight market. Values have deteriorated from the highs of nearly $20 million, but at current levels they represent viability for both owners and operators. The B757 is already on the scene and the arrival of the B767-300 will represent a keen competitor. Values of the oldest examples are not likely to be able to resist an age-related decline.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1975 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 9.1 | – | – |
| 1977 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.9 | – |
| 1979 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 |
| 1981 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 4.6 |
| 1983 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 5.0 |
Despite significant falls over the last few years, if not decade, the type continues to suffer further declines. Freighter conversion has been beckoning for some considerable time but speculative conversion is proving elusive.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1985 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 3.7 |
| 1987 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| 1989 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 15.1 | 8.7 | 5.8 |
| 1991 | 10.4 | 14.8 | 17.4 | 10.3 | 6.9 |
The -600R still has something to commend it to operators. The prospect of a replacement still seems far off such that for operators seeking high capacity for medium haul routes, the A300-600R represents one of very few alternatives. Values, however, are still considered to have declined over the last six months in line with the expectation that the principal source of demand lay with the freighter market. Post conversion capital costs need to be below $20 million, suggesting that some further falls are inevitable.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 11.8 | 16.0 | 17.8 | 11.1 | 7.6 |
| 1989 | 15.0 | 20.3 | 22.5 | 14.3 | 10.0 |
| 1991 | 18.1 | 24.5 | 27.2 | 17.6 | 12.5 |
| 1993 | 21.3 | 28.8 | 31.9 | 21.2 | 15.3 |
| 1995 | 24.4 | 33.0 | 36.6 | 25.0 | 18.3 |
| 1997 | 27.6 | 37.3 | 41.4 | 29.2 | 21.8 |
Few types have seen such a large proportion of the fleet turned to freighters. The concentration with so few carriers, indeed one carrier, carries many risks for the medium to long term.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1982 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 1984 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 1986 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| 1988 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
Like the A300, the A310 is unlikely to have a direct replacement for many years, forcing carriers to continue seeking the smaller widebody. Values continue to decline, though lease rentals may be faring better. If and when a recovery emerges, the A310 is not expected to be among the beneficiaries. Scrapping has already befallen some examples, highlighting the precarious nature for values.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1985 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| 1987 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 16.3 | 9.1 | 5.8 |
| 1989 | 12.6 | 17.5 | 20.8 | 11.9 | 7.7 |
| 1991 | 15.4 | 21.4 | 25.4 | 14.8 | 9.7 |
| 1993 | 18.1 | 25.2 | 30.0 | 17.8 | 12.0 |
| 1995 | 20.9 | 29.0 | 34.6 | 21.1 | 14.4 |
| 1997 | 23.7 | 32.9 | 39.2 | 24.8 | 17.2 |
A great aircraft at least for the few operators that have the route structure and passenger yields to make the type viable. The type has considerable merit in terms of payload/range and has long been used on transatlantic routes.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1988 | 12.0 | 16.5 | 19.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 |
| 1990 | 15.0 | 20.6 | 24.1 | 13.8 | 9.0 |
| 1992 | 18.0 | 24.7 | 28.9 | 16.9 | 11.3 |
| 1994 | 21.0 | 28.8 | 33.6 | 20.2 | 13.7 |
| 1996 | 24.0 | 32.8 | 38.4 | 23.8 | 16.4 |
The A319 features operating characteristics that match the needs of a wide range of operators. The 130 seater is very much back in vogue, though at the expense of the B737-300 and -400.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 21.0 | 23.1 | 24.2 | 17.4 | 14.2 |
| 1998 | 23.9 | 26.2 | 27.5 | 22.3 | 17.1 |
| 2000 | 26.7 | 29.4 | 30.8 | 25.3 | 19.9 |
| 2002 | 29.6 | 32.5 | 34.1 | 28.1 | 22.8 |
Values of the A319HGW are among the few to have actually experienced an increase, albeit very modest, in the last six months, though placement can still be ponderous for the uninitiated. In view of the next quarter being a traditionally lean period, values are expected to achieve stability at best.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 22.1 | 24.2 | 25.4 | 19.9 | 14.9 |
| 1998 | 25.0 | 27.4 | 28.7 | 23.2 | 17.8 |
| 2000 | 27.9 | 30.5 | 32.1 | 26.4 | 20.7 |
| 2002 | 30.9 | 33.7 | 35.4 | 29.2 | 23.6 |
An aircraft that continues to stimulate the senses of the adventurous, but which has little relevance to the concept of asset-based financing.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| 1989 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 3.5 |
| 1991 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 3.8 |
The age profile of the A320 now extends back for nearly 16 years. This has created a clear need to differentiate between those built before 1996 – a point when an upgraded version of the CFM56 became available – and subsequent examples. Values and lease rentals of the A320 have been impacted by the problems encountered by a number of operators. Something of a surplus is constraining values and rentals, a problem that will not easily dissipate.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1988 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 15.0 | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| 1990 | 16.1 | 17.9 | 18.7 | 13.7 | 9.5 |
| 1992 | 19.3 | 21.5 | 22.5 | 16.7 | 11.8 |
| 1994 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 26.2 | 20.0 | 14.4 |
| 1996 | 25.7 | 28.6 | 29.9 | 23.6 | 17.2 |
| 1998 | 28.9 | 32.1 | 33.6 | 27.3 | 20.4 |
| 2000 | 32.1 | 35.7 | 37.3 | 30.8 | 23.6 |
| 2002 | 35.3 | 39.2 | 41.0 | 33.9 | 26.8 |
The A321-100 remains a problem aircraft, even though availability and storage are not too much of an issue. Retention is evident among initial customers such that early availability is being avoided. As with all aircraft, absence of availability does not guarantee residual strength.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1994 | 22.5 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 19.8 | 14.1 |
| 1996 | 25.8 | 28.6 | 29.8 | 23.4 | 17.0 |
| 1998 | 29.1 | 32.3 | 33.6 | 27.2 | 20.2 |
| 2000 | 32.3 | 35.9 | 37.4 | 30.8 | 23.4 |
| 2002 | 35.6 | 39.6 | 41.2 | 34.0 | 26.6 |
A good and capable aircraft that may yet come more into its own now that production of the B757 is to cease. An increase in traffic will encourage operators to upsize rather than add frequency and the family relationship makes the type an obvious choice. Payload/range makes the -200 a viable alternative to the B737-800 and B757.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 29.7 | 32.9 | 34.2 | 26.9 | 21.0 |
| 1998 | 33.7 | 37.2 | 38.7 | 31.5 | 23.9 |
| 2000 | 37.6 | 41.6 | 43.3 | 35.8 | 27.8 |
| 2002 | 41.6 | 46.0 | 47.8 | 39.6 | 31.6 |
The A330-200 has encountered the sort of turmoil that would permanently damage perceptions for other types. Yet the A330-200 continues to be placed by operators eager to take advantage of the operating economics of the type in terms of range and capacity. The carriage of low yielding economy passengers is secondary to the facilities offered to premium economy and business class. The all-but-launch of the B7E7 represents an important competitor such that there will need to be careful assessment of residuals. In the meantime, the replacement of B767-300ERs will continue apace much to the chagrin of Boeing.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1998 | 70.0 | 76.6 | 79.2 | 66.9 | 51.5 |
| 2000 | 76.0 | 83.1 | 76.0 | 73.7 | 58.0 |
| 2002 | 81.9 | 89.5 | 92.7 | 79.4 | 64.4 |
A type that has pulled back from the precipice in terms of excess availability. Though values are still experiencing a decline, an improvement in the fortunes of Asian carriers will do much to assist the A330. The security issues affecting the U.S. may, however, represent a sticking point given its use on the North Atlantic.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1994 | 46.6 | 52.4 | 54.5 | 40.4 | 29.0 |
| 1996 | 53.8 | 60.5 | 62.9 | 48.0 | 35.1 |
| 1998 | 61.0 | 68.6 | 71.3 | 56.2 | 41.8 |
| 2000 | 68.3 | 76.7 | 79.8 | 63.8 | 48.6 |
| 2002 | 75.5 | 84.8 | 88.2 | 70.6 | 55.4 |
A type that continues to enjoy split personalities. At one time the VVIP market seemed to be the only source of demand, but since then placement with commercial operators has seen the return of alternative uses. Though figures of $100 million are bandied around for VIP configurations, those for commercial use are much more modest.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1993 | 38.2 | 43.4 | 45.2 | 32.0 | 22.9 |
| 1995 | 43.0 | 48.9 | 50.9 | 37.1 | 26.9 |
| 1997 | 47.9 | 54.4 | 56.6 | 42.6 | 31.4 |
The type still has sufficient range to offer viable performance for operators seeking use on higher density routes. Though payload/range is a vital consideration in assessing values, not all potential operators require absolute range. However, compared to the higher gross weight B777-200ERs and A340-300s, there exists considerable competition.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1993 | 50.0 | 54.9 | 57.4 | 42.1 | 31.7 |
| 1995 | 57.5 | 63.2 | 66.0 | 49.7 | 38.0 |
| 1997 | 65.9 | 71.4 | 74.6 | 58.1 | 45.2 |
| 1999 | 72.5 | 79.7 | 83.3 | 66.3 | 52.7 |
| 2001 | 80.0 | 88.0 | 91.9 | 73.6 | 60.1 |
| 2003 | 87.6 | 96.2 | 100.5 | 80.6 | 68.0 |
The A340-300 is now available as an enhanced variant offering LCD displays, improved engines and numerous other changes to the previous -300ER. The E version is considered the baseline such that values of the preceding -ER have inevitably been impacted. The placement of all SIA aircraft is a relief.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 67.2 | 73.4 | 76.5 | 59.4 | 46.6 |
| 1998 | 75.3 | 82.3 | 85.8 | 68.8 | 54.9 |
| 2000 | 83.4 | 91.2 | 95.0 | 77.3 | 63.2 |
| 2002 | 91.6 | 100.1 | 104.3 | 84.9 | 74.8 |
The A340-600 continues to enjoy considerable enthusiasm among the larger operators offering much higher capacity than the A340-300. The existing -600 is, however, disadvantaged when compared to the higher gross weight version that is due to enter service next year. There may even be justification for assuming an element of divergence between values of the two variants in the medium term.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 2002 | 114.2 | 120.2 | 123.8 | 99.9 | 78.4 |
The type keeps going by virtue of dogged determination on the part of operators.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1965 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1967 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | – | – |
| 1971 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | – | – |
| 1973 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | – | – |
This year will see the fate of the B717 sealed one way or another. A new regime will likely make a decision that should have been taken some years ago. Were it not for manufacturing finance, there would be little means of keeping the type in viable production. Values continue to be hard pressed.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1999 | 14.7 | 16.2 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 9.7 |
| 2001 | 17.4 | 19.2 | 20.1 | 15.7 | 11.9 |
| 2003 | 20.2 | 22.1 | 23.3 | 18.1 | 14.3 |
The values of the -100 are of little consequence to asset-based financing.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1963 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1965 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1967 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | – | – |
| 1971 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | – | – |
After nearly 40 years the type still manages to eek out an existence. A hushkit is essential, though the original cost of the modification has long since been negated.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1964 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | – | – |
| 1966 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | – | – |
| 1968 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 | – | – |
| 1970 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | – | – |
The B727-200H still has minor relevance to the market, but any value lies in the eye of the beholder. With so many alternatives now available, the B727 is no longer the type of choice.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1966 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | – | – |
| 1968 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | – | – |
| 1970 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | – | – |
The -200HADV still has some merit, not least because its three-engined configuration affords operators considerable operating flexibility. Values have inevitably declined and are continuing to do so. Scrapping appears to be ever more prevalent and inevitable.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1972 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 1974 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | – | – |
| 1976 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | – | – |
| 1978 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | – | – |
| 1980 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – |
| 1982 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | – |
Values of the freighter version continue to decline, but not perhaps as much as they have done in the past. Operating costs in terms of fuel, maintenance and crewing costs may indeed be significant, but there continue to be supporters of the type around the globe where low capital cost and low utilization dictate its retention and acquisition.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1972 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | – | – |
| 1974 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | – | – |
| 1976 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | – |
| 1978 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 | – |
| 1980 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1982 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
Down and out.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1967 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
Again, little comment necessary.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1967 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1971 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
The B737-200ADV may be more difficult to spot in the skies, but the type offers considerable operating capability for operators. The only viable alternatives in terms of capacity can cost ten times the values indicated below. However, maintenance issues remain a real cost item and D checks represent a turning point for many examples.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1971 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1973 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | – | – |
| 1975 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | – | – |
| 1977 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | – | – |
| 1979 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1981 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | – |
| 1983 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | – |
| 1985 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | – |
| 1987 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | – |
The -200HADV is still used by a wide variety of operators around the world for good reason. Capacity and performance are still valued but maintenance and fuel consumption less so. Some money can still be made by owners, particularly with respect to leasing. The freighter version has far greater merit such that heavy discounting of values may be premature.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1971 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | – | – |
| 1973 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | – | – |
| 1975 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | – | – |
| 1977 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 2.6 | – | – |
| 1979 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 0.7 | – |
| 1981 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 1983 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1985 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
The B737-300 analog is hardly the choice of airlines. Most operators, particularly outside the U.S., demand EFIS as standard as well as higher weight. As such, there could be a case for considering a divergence in values between the older and younger, analog and EFIS.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1984 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 1986 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| 1988 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 |
| 1990 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 5.5 |
| 1992 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 6.4 |
| 1994 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 7.5 |
| 1996 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 16.2 | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| 1998 | 11.0 | 15.3 | 17.6 | 12.6 | 9.9 |
The -300 continues to face a tough time. While some of the excesses associated with distressed sale pricing have partially evaporated, there continues to be a constant supply of units on the market. However, it appears that more recently rentals have hardened, suggesting that demand has picked up slightly and offering the prospect of some stability for values.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1985 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| 1987 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 5.0 |
| 1989 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 5.9 |
| 1991 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 9.4 | 6.9 |
| 1993 | 10.4 | 14.0 | 16.4 | 10.7 | 8.0 |
| 1995 | 11.4 | 15.4 | 18.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 |
| 1997 | 12.4 | 16.8 | 19.6 | 13.7 | 10.5 |
| 1999 | 13.4 | 18.1 | 21.2 | 15.1 | 12.0 |
The program for converting other B737-300s to freighters is now gathering pace. The QC retains merit in being able to convert from one to another, but usually operators prefer to keep the freighter configuration semi-permanent.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1986 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| 1988 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 6.0 |
| 1990 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 14.8 | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| 1992 | 11.1 | 14.4 | 16.5 | 10.9 | 8.1 |
| 1994 | 11.6 | 15.1 | 17.4 | 11.6 | 8.7 |
| 1996 | 12.8 | 16.6 | 19.1 | 13.1 | 10.1 |
| 1998 | 14.6 | 18.9 | 21.8 | 15.7 | 12.4 |
The B737-700 is enjoying considerable demand such that rentals and values are at least stable if not improving. There are even suggestions that production rates may increase – perhaps because rates for most other lines are continuing to drop. A good solid performer until such time as a successor is launched.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1997 | 24.0 | 27.6 | 29.6 | 23.0 | 17.1 |
| 1999 | 26.6 | 30.6 | 32.7 | 26.1 | 19.8 |
| 2001 | 29.1 | 33.5 | 35.8 | 28.8 | 22.5 |
| 2003 | 31.7 | 36.4 | 39.0 | 31.3 | 25.3 |
Like the -300 analog, the -400 is something of a rarity and not well liked. The type has proved difficult to move in the past in terms of direct sales, although the absence of EFIS equipped units may offer better prospects.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1988 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| 1990 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| 1992 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 6.4 |
| 1994 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 15.9 | 10.5 | 7.4 |
| 1996 | 12.2 | 15.3 | 17.6 | 11.9 | 8.6 |
| 1998 | 13.4 | 16.7 | 19.2 | 13.5 | 10.0 |
The -400 EFIS is managing to resist repeating some of the more noticeable declines that have been experienced in recent years. Lease rentals are said to be creeping upwards again such that $150,000 may not be unreasonable for non-U.S. aircraft.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1988 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 5.2 |
| 1990 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 6.2 |
| 1992 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 16.0 | 10.3 | 7.2 |
| 1994 | 12.3 | 15.4 | 17.7 | 12.6 | 8.3 |
| 1996 | 13.5 | 16.9 | 19.5 | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| 1998 | 14.8 | 18.5 | 21.3 | 14.9 | 11.4 |
The B737-800HGW continues to be a bright spot. Values are slightly up as are lease rentals, indicating substantial enthusiasm for the type. This is good news for investors, except those that may be suffering now due to lower revenues emanating from the weaker dollar. For buyers, it has never been a better time to buy. As with any popular aircraft, as soon as a replacement is announced, values will start to slip.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1998 | 31.2 | 34.9 | 38.1 | 30.2 | 23.9 |
| 2000 | 34.9 | 39.0 | 42.5 | 34.3 | 37.7 |
| 2002 | 38.6 | 43.1 | 47.0 | 38.0 | 31.6 |
There are relatively few analog -500s in service. This makes placement either easier or more difficult depending on demand from a few operators.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1990 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 3.8 |
| 1992 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 4.7 |
| 1994 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 5.8 |
| 1996 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 6.9 |
| 1998 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 16.0 | 11.4 | 8.2 |
The -500 is managing to hold on to its market, at least to some extent. There has been no large-scale scramble to acquire the A318 or B737-600. Like other 100 seaters, by straddling two market segments it fails to meet the demands of either.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1990 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 |
| 1992 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 |
| 1994 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 9.7 | 6.8 |
| 1996 | 11.6 | 14.6 | 16.7 | 11.3 | 8.0 |
| 1998 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 18.5 | 12.9 | 9.3 |
The problems facing the -600 are not dissipating. Instead, they are multiplying. There are effectively no deliveries left to be made and the existing limited operator base does not bode well for remarketing. It can only be hoped that the much more numerous -500 operators will tire of the existing equipment due to age or performance and seek a recognizable replacement in the form of the -600. In the meantime and contrasting with the -700 and -800, values are slipping.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1998 | 17.7 | 20.9 | 22.3 | 16.7 | 11.8 |
| 2000 | 20.3 | 24.5 | 26.2 | 19.9 | 14.5 |
| 2002 | 23.3 | 28.0 | 30.0 | 22.8 | 17.2 |
The -900 is perhaps in even a worse position than the -600 with a very limited customer and operator base. Despite a number of years promoting the -900X, the type has yet to be launched. The irony is that when the -900X is launched, values of the -900 will be even more exposed.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 2000 | 31.5 | 35.0 | 37.1 | 30.4 | 23.7 |
| 2002 | 36.4 | 40.5 | 42.9 | 35.2 | 28.4 |
The -100SF continues to defy expectation and manages to keep on flying – if only just and only when a D check or multiple engine overhauls are not imminent.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1969 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | – | – |
| 1971 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.5 | – | – |
| 1973 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 6.4 | – | – |
| 1975 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | – | – |
The A340-200 has to some extent taken over the mantle of the B747SP, but the Boeing product has the ability to be flown as a charter transport. Lower utilization can keep the type viable.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1975 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | – | – |
| 1977 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | – |
| 1979 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1981 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
Values of even the younger -200Bs are on the brink, and there are many smaller types of similar vintage that possess a higher value. As each month slips, values of the -200B slip further.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1971 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | – | – |
| 1973 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.6 | – | – |
| 1975 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | – | – |
| 1977 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | – |
| 1979 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 1981 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1983 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| 1985 | 3.1 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 |
| 1987 | 3.4 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 3.8 |
The -200M continues to offer operators a means of matching passenger and cargo demand, but the appetite for the type has long since dissipated, even as a potential target for freighter conversion.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1975 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 | – | – |
| 1977 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 3.2 | – |
| 1979 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 1981 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 3.7 |
| 1983 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| 1985 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 14.0 | 7.4 | 5.1 |
| 1987 | 6.7 | 12.0 | 15.6 | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| 1989 | 7.4 | 13.2 | 17.2 | 9.4 | 6.6 |
The -200SF continues to provide valuable and relatively inexpensive service to a number of operators. However, the type has not been attractive for some years. In the space of a few short years, values have more than halved with further declines expected. Scrapping is a viable alternative once the D check looms large.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1976 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 4.0 | – |
| 1978 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 13.1 | 6.9 | – |
| 1980 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 15.3 | 8.2 | 5.2 |
| 1982 | 7.6 | 13.3 | 17.6 | 9.5 | 7.2 |
| 1984 | 8.6 | 15.0 | 19.9 | 10.9 | 8.4 |
| 1986 | 9.5 | 16.8 | 22.1 | 12.3 | 9.6 |
| 1988 | 10.5 | 18.5 | 24.4 | 13.8 | 10.8 |
| 1990 | 11.5 | 20.2 | 26.7 | 15.4 | 12.2 |
The -300 continues to lose ground. For an aircraft that is only 20 years of age, the decline in value has been significant and a lesson in the impact of obsolescence.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1983 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| 1985 | 6.1 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 8.1 | 5.6 |
| 1987 | 7.1 | 13.4 | 16.7 | 9.5 | 6.7 |
| 1989 | 8.1 | 15.2 | 19.1 | 11.1 | 7.9 |
The -300M still allows operators a means of matching demand with capacity, but this relates to existing rather than new operators. As a stand-alone product, the -300M will continue to find the market difficult.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1983 | 9.0 | 14.1 | 17.8 | 9.9 | 6.8 |
| 1985 | 10.4 | 16.2 | 20.5 | 11.5 | 8.1 |
| 1987 | 11.7 | 18.4 | 23.1 | 13.2 | 9.4 |
| 1989 | 13.1 | 20.5 | 25.8 | 15.0 | 10.7 |
The market for the -400 remains tough. The United sale to Thai Airways appears not to be going through at the previously quoted $50 million. Instead, there is speculation that some examples are on the market for less. However, there has recently been a spate of acquisitions and returns to service that have reduced some of the considerable pressure on the type. Values continue to decline, a trend that is likely to continue, particularly for the younger examples.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1989 | 30.7 | 39.8 | 45.0 | 26.6 | 18.2 |
| 1991 | 40.2 | 52.2 | 59.0 | 35.5 | 24.7 |
| 1993 | 49.7 | 64.6 | 73.0 | 44.9 | 31.6 |
| 1995 | 59.2 | 76.9 | 86.9 | 54.9 | 39.3 |
| 1997 | 68.7 | 89.3 | 100.9 | 65.9 | 47.9 |
| 1999 | 78.3 | 101.6 | 114.9 | 76.9 | 57.0 |
| 2001 | 87.8 | 114.0 | 128.8 | 86.6 | 66.0 |
| 2003 | 97.3 | 126.4 | 142.8 | 96.0 | 75.6 |
While the -400D represents the most likely target for scrapping, such market specific types tend to linger the most, with any value lying with the operator rather than the investor.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1991 | 32.3 | 40.9 | 45.4 | 27.2 | 18.8 |
| 1993 | 39.9 | 50.5 | 56.1 | 34.4 | 24.1 |
| 1995 | 47.5 | 60.2 | 47.5 | 42.1 | 30.0 |
The prospect of conversion to freighter looms. The existing main deck cargo door and ability to mix and match passengers and cargo, essentially a similar commodity for airlines, allows a measure of a premium. Values are continuing to fall.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1989 | 33.2 | 43.1 | 48.7 | 30.1 | 20.8 |
| 1991 | 42.2 | 54.9 | 62.0 | 44.5 | 27.4 |
| 1993 | 51.3 | 66.6 | 75.3 | 48.5 | 34.4 |
| 1995 | 60.4 | 78.4 | 88.6 | 58.6 | 42.2 |
| 1997 | 69.5 | 90.2 | 101.9 | 69.7 | 51.1 |
| 1999 | 78.5 | 102.0 | 115.3 | 80.6 | 60.3 |
| 2001 | 87.6 | 113.8 | 128.6 | 90.5 | 69.5 |
The problems of Atlas continue to overshadow the -400F to the extent that the merits of the type are frequently overlooked. The -400F offers range and capacity and represents virtually the only B747 variant still in production. The arrival of the -400SF program, despite the absence of a nose loading door and extended upper deck, present particular problems for the production of -400F such that values are being adversely affected.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1993 | 70.5 | 81.5 | 88.9 | 62.1 | 46.6 |
| 1995 | 80.9 | 93.5 | 101.9 | 73.1 | 55.6 |
| 1997 | 91.3 | 105.5 | 115.0 | 85.1 | 65.9 |
| 1999 | 101.6 | 117.5 | 128.1 | 97.1 | 76.7 |
| 2001 | 112.0 | 129.5 | 141.1 | 107.5 | 87.5 |
| 2003 | 122.4 | 141.5 | 154.2 | 117.5 | 98.5 |
The ending of production will bring to a close much of the uncertainty that has surrounded the type over the last few years. With 1,000+ orders and a production span of 20 years, the type can be considered a major success, particularly as neither Boeing nor Airbus have come up with a direct replacement. Values may have tumbled in the recent past due to a variety of problems, but improved traffic levels may yet see a need for the type in the all important U.S. market. Yet, the U.S. majors continue to face problems such that further disposals may occur. In the meantime, values continue to decline.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1982 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| 1984 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 6.5 |
| 1986 | 12.3 | 14.3 | 16.1 | 11.5 | 8.5 |
| 1988 | 14.8 | 17.2 | 19.3 | 14.0 | 10.5 |
| 1990 | 17.2 | 20.0 | 22.5 | 16.6 | 12.6 |
| 1992 | 19.7 | 22.9 | 25.7 | 19.4 | 14.9 |
| 1994 | 22.1 | 25.8 | 28.9 | 22.4 | 17.5 |
| 1996 | 24.6 | 28.6 | 32.1 | 25.6 | 20.3 |
| 1998 | 27.1 | 31.5 | 35.3 | 29.1 | 25.9 |
| 2000 | 29.5 | 34.3 | 38.5 | 32.2 | 26.7 |
| 2002 | 32.0 | 37.2 | 41.7 | 34.9 | 29.8 |
A great aircraft that still offers exceptional performance. The type has been placed with a variety of carriers in recent months, albeit as a consequence of low rentals and mainly to new or expanding carriers. Values are expected to continue declining.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 13.3 | 16.4 | 18.2 | 13.3 | 9.9 |
| 1989 | 16.0 | 19.7 | 21.9 | 16.3 | 12.3 |
| 1991 | 18.7 | 23.1 | 25.6 | 19.5 | 14.9 |
| 1993 | 21.4 | 26.4 | 29.3 | 22.8 | 17.6 |
| 1995 | 24.1 | 29.7 | 33.0 | 26.3 | 20.7 |
| 1997 | 26.7 | 33.0 | 36.7 | 30.3 | 24.2 |
| 1999 | 29.4 | 36.4 | 40.4 | 34.1 | 27.9 |
| 2001 | 32.1 | 39.7 | 44.0 | 37.5 | 31.5 |
The -200PF now faces competition from the -200SF such that some of the premium that the production freighter may attract has been negated. The type has in some ways more merit than it used to; at current pricing it is of use to more than just the small package carriers.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 15.7 | 19.0 | 20.7 | 15.0 | 11.2 |
| 1989 | 18.7 | 22.5 | 24.5 | 18.1 | 13.7 |
| 1991 | 21.6 | 26.0 | 28.4 | 21.4 | 16.4 |
| 1993 | 24.5 | 29.6 | 32.3 | 24.9 | 19.3 |
| 1995 | 27.5 | 33.1 | 36.1 | 28.6 | 22.6 |
| 1997 | 30.4 | 36.7 | 40.0 | 32.7 | 26.3 |
| 1999 | 33.4 | 40.2 | 43.8 | 36.7 | 30.1 |
The cancellation of the B757 program has had a marked effect on the -300. With now less than 60 units to be produced, values have had to be slashed by around 10 percent. The change in values represents one of the most significant overnight shifts since Sept. 11, 2001. Values are now virtually on a par to those of the -200 with residuals potentially being lower.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1998 | 32.4 | 36.8 | 38.7 | 31.4 | 24.2 |
| 2000 | 36.4 | 41.4 | 43.4 | 35.9 | 28.4 |
| 2002 | 40.4 | 45.8 | 48.2 | 39.9 | 32.5 |
The -200 continues to experience a rough ride such that values have fallen further and the prospect of freighter conversion has turned into reality.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1981 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| 1983 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 3.9 |
| 1985 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 |
| 1987 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 14.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| 1989 | 10.0 | 13.6 | 16.0 | 9.7 | 6.9 |
| 1991 | 11.3 | 15.2 | 18.0 | 11.1 | 8.0 |
With no direct replacement the -200ER offers good performance but not enough to prevent a further fall in values. The type will, however, continue to be placed among a variety of second tier flag carriers that do not have the traffic to justify larger equipment. With conversions, supply may diminish to allow a micro market to emerge.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1984 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 5.8 |
| 1986 | 11.0 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 10.4 | 6.9 |
| 1988 | 12.5 | 16.7 | 18.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| 1990 | 14.1 | 18.8 | 21.1 | 13.8 | 9.5 |
| 1992 | 15.6 | 20.9 | 23.4 | 15.6 | 10.9 |
The prospect of -300s emerging onto the market is likely to be a cause for concern for those seeking to remarket the type. While freighter conversion beckons, this essentially represents an admission that values have suffered.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1986 | 11.8 | 14.2 | 15.8 | 10.0 | 6.7 |
| 1988 | 15.87 | 19.0 | 21.1 | 13.6 | 9.3 |
| 1990 | 19.8 | 23.9 | 26.5 | 17.5 | 12.1 |
| 1992 | 23.8 | 28.7 | 31.9 | 21.5 | 15.1 |
| 1994 | 27.9 | 33.6 | 37.2 | 25.7 | 18.4 |
| 1996 | 31.9 | 38.4 | 42.7 | 30.3 | 22.0 |
| 1998 | 35.9 | 43.3 | 48.0 | 35.2 | 26.1 |
The B767-300ER has long been a major player among widebodies such that its increasing fall from grace represents a blow to investor confidence. The type may still be in production, but seemingly not for much longer. Boeing will seek to eek out a few orders until the arrival of the B7E7 but at a price that bears no relationship to the $84 million quoted for new aircraft a few years ago. In the meantime, the A330-200 will gain further ground at the expense of the -300ER such that a steady ebb and flow on the used market will become a permanent feature for the latter.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1988 | 20.0 | 23.8 | 25.7 | 17.9 | 12.5 |
| 1990 | 25.0 | 29.7 | 32.1 | 22.8 | 16.1 |
| 1992 | 30.0 | 35.7 | 38.6 | 28.0 | 20.0 |
| 1994 | 35.0 | 41.7 | 45.0 | 33.5 | 24.3 |
| 1996 | 40.0 | 47.6 | 51.4 | 39.4 | 29.0 |
| 1998 | 45.0 | 53.6 | 57.9 | 45.8 | 34.4 |
| 2000 | 50.0 | 59.5 | 64.3 | 51.7 | 39.7 |
| 2002 | 55.0 | 65.5 | 70.7 | 59.9 | 45.0 |
The -200A faces severe problems. The market has essentially turned its back on the type, at least while alternatives exist at reasonable prices. The gap between the -200 and – 200ER seems to be increasing.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1995 | 49.8 | 58.6 | 61.5 | 47.0 | 34.1 |
| 1997 | 57.6 | 67.8 | 71.2 | 56.6 | 41.5 |
| 1999 | 65.5 | 77.1 | 80.9 | 65.4 | 49.3 |
The -200ER remains a cornerstone of the Boeing product line, but the seeming absence of orders during 2003 may be a cause for concern in the context of Airbus orders. While the improvement in the market will favor the type, the problems being experienced by key U.S. operators will pose a problem for values. For the time being, values enjoy a measure of stability.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 77.7 | 85.3 | 89.6 | 70.3 | 52.0 |
| 1998 | 86.4 | 95.0 | 99.7 | 80.7 | 60.8 |
| 2000 | 95.2 | 104.6 | 109.9 | 90.2 | 69.6 |
| 2002 | 104.0 | 114.3 | 120.0 | 98.6 | 78.3 |
Though a number of -300 orders and deliveries have been made, this should not obscure the impact of the arrival of the -300ER on values.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1998 | 81.3 | 90.3 | 97.5 | 74.7 | 57.7 |
| 2000 | 92.8 | 103.1 | 111.4 | 86.6 | 68.4 |
| 2002 | 104.4 | 116.0 | 125.3 | 97.4 | 79.2 |
As a vehicle for asset-based financing, the BAC1-11 lost the plot many years ago.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1965 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1967 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
The -100 continues to lose ground in terms of values due to age and availability of alternative equipment. Yet, with known operating costs the type still has some worth, if depreciating.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1982 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1984 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1986 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 1988 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 1990 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
With such low capital cost the -200 can still give the new breed of regional jets a run for their money. Availability has certainly been on the increase such that placement can prove a lengthy process. Values are still declining, though not on the scale of recent years.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1984 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1986 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 1988 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 1990 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 |
| 1992 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 3.3 |
The new generation of 100 seaters has yet to emerge, such that the -300 still has a role to play. In common with the B717, B737-600 and A318, the size of the -300 is perhaps too large or too small depending on the type of operator. Age is now taking its toll, as is the RJ100.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1988 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 1990 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| 1992 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
There are so few in service that the prospect of a micro-market emerging are very real, though use as a VIP transport may make better sense.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1993 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| 1995 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 4.9 |
| 2000 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 15.1 | 10.7 | 8.3 |
A great aircraft that has proved its worth to a variety of operators for over a decade. The size of the aircraft has proved useful in providing feed as well as direct routings, but values must be impacted by the arrival of new products.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1993 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 4.6 |
| 1995 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 |
| 1997 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 7.0 |
| 1999 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| 2001 | 13.2 | 15.5 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 9.8 |
The RJ100 is managing to enjoy the benefits of limited competition, particularly with respect to price. But with an age profile that now stretches back a decade, supply is inevitable. There is likely to be increased market activity.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1993 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 5.2 |
| 1995 | 10.0 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 6.4 |
| 1997 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 14.5 | 10.4 | 7.8 |
| 1999 | 12.8 | 15.1 | 16.3 | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| 2001 | 14.3 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 13.5 | 10.6 |
The values of the CRJ200ER have managed to avoid the weakness that has befallen so many other jet types, but it must now be wondered whether the large number in service are a cause for allowing age-based declines to emerge.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 14.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 |
| 1998 | 12.9 | 14.4 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 |
| 2000 | 14.6 | 16.2 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| 2002 | 16.2 | 18.0 | 20.2 | 14.3 | 10.4 |
The ERJ145 has the same problem as the CRJ200ER in that there now exist a large number in service, delivery slots are more readily available, new aircraft types are available and the opportunity for large new orders has diminished.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1996 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 5.7 |
| 1998 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 7.2 |
| 2000 | 12.7 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 8.6 |
| 2002 | 14.3 | 15.8 | 16.7 | 12.8 | 10.0 |
Though some remaining units have been assembled, full scale production has yet to restart suggesting that there should continue to be caution regarding values of the type.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1999 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| 2001 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 |
Like the BAC1-11 to some extent, the F28 has considerable merit but not as a vehicle for asset-based financing.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1976 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1978 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | – | – |
| 1980 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | – | – |
| 1982 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 1984 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | – | – |
| 1986 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | – | – |
A clearly marginalized product that that has little hope of a micro market emerging. There are now too many alternatives for values of the F70 to remain at current levels.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1994 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| 1996 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
The Fokker 100 has clawed itself partially out of a quagmire, but considerable effort remains if values are to regain some of their losses of recent years.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1989 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1991 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 1993 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| 1995 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
There seems to be little point in even providing values for the type as the "museum effect" has clearly arrived.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1971 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | – | – |
| 1973 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | – | – |
| 1975 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | – | – |
| 1977 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | – |
| 1979 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1981 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Some market activity may be emerging, but as with the last 20 years, the type remains one of the least attractive types. Even use as a restaurant has lost some of its appeal as other widebodies become available.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1975 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | – | – |
| 1977 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | – |
| 1979 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1981 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
The -500 has the range and capacity to make it suited to a variety of secondary charter activities, but not enough to prevent values from exhibiting a further decline.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1978 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | – |
| 1980 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1982 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
The once mighty DC8 faces turbulent times such that values remain weak. Even with the prospect of an improvement in the cargo market, the type is not expected to be a beneficiary.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1968 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | – | – |
| 1970 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.8 | – | – |
| 1972 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 4.1 | – | – |
For so long the archetypal ad hoc freighter transport, values are less than half what they were a few years ago.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1969 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 9.6 | – | – |
| 1971 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 5.6 | – |
No longer relevant to the market.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1965 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1967 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
There may be some activity here and there, but for the most part the era of the DC9 has long since past. Values continue to decline such that scrapping is likely to be accelerated.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1967 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 1969 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | – | – |
| 1971 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | – | – |
| 1973 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | – | – |
| 1975 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | – | – |
| 1977 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | – | – |
| 1979 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | – |
| 1981 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Values are virtually at rock bottom.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1968 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | – | – |
| 1970 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | – | – |
| 1972 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | – | – |
| 1974 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | – | – |
| 1976 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.4 | – | – |
| 1978 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | – | – |
Any value is likely to reside with the operator, particularly in the context of replacement. Values have entered the final phase of residual behavior.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1974 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1976 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | – | – |
| 1978 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | – | – |
| 1980 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | – | – |
The structure of the MD81 may be such that a life expectancy of 30-plus years may be reasonable, but market conditions suggest otherwise, particularly as freighter conversion seems not to be an option.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1979 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1981 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 1983 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 1985 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 1987 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| 1989 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| 1991 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 3.9 |
Values of the MD82 continue to experience a decline, a trend that is not expected to be reversed anytime soon. Availability is not necessarily a major issue – currently at 4 percent – but as with so many types, market appeal and other factors are more important considerations.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1981 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 1983 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| 1985 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 3.0 |
| 1987 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| 1989 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| 1991 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| 1993 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 |
| 1995 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 5.8 |
| 1997 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 9.2 | 6.6 |
Still a good aircraft for some operators. But in the context of cheap, newer aircraft and market imperatives, the MD83 no longer offers sufficient advantage to ease the remarketing process. Values continue to decline with no respite in sight.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1985 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 3.3 |
| 1987 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 |
| 1989 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| 1991 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 5.1 |
| 1993 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 |
| 1995 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 9.3 | 6.6 |
| 1997 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 16.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 |
| 1999 | 10.4 | 14.0 | 17.5 | 12.3 | 8.5 |
An increasingly marginalized type with declining values.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| 1989 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 |
| 1991 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 3.1 |
A limited operator base offers no prospect of improvement for values.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1987 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 3.8 |
| 1989 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| 1991 | 7.6 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 5.2 |
| 1993 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 |
| 1995 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 15.6 | 9.8 | 6.9 |
| 1997 | 10.0 | 13.7 | 17.0 | 11.0 | 8.0 |
Despite considerable potential attraction, values of the MD90 continue to decline. There are too few operators such that any carrier will find it difficult to establish a fleet around the type.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1994 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 16.8 | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| 1996 | 12.4 | 15.8 | 18.4 | 12.1 | 8.5 |
| 1998 | 13.6 | 17.2 | 20.1 | 13.6 | 9.8 |
At rock bottom.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1970 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | – | – |
| 1972 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.3 | – | – |
| 1974 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | – | – |
| 1976 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | – |
Despite having enjoyed something of a reprieve a few years ago, the decline since has been constant and irreversible.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1972 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | – | – |
| 1974 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 | – | – |
| 1976 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | – |
| 1978 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | – |
| 1980 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 |
| 1982 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| 1987 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
As with so many types of this vintage, any value resides with the operator rather than the investor.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1972 | 0.6 | 1.07 | 1.3 | – | – |
| 1974 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | – | – |
| 1978 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | – |
| 1980 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1982 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
Where once there existed some potential, the continuing problems and lack of appetite among existing operators remains a concern. The number being advertised has, however, exhibited a decline in recent months such that only a few appear to be on the market.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1990 | 20.9 | 28.2 | 33.3 | 20.8 | 15.0 |
| 1992 | 24.4 | 32.9 | 38.9 | 24.8 | 18.1 |
| 1994 | 27.9 | 37.7 | 44.5 | 29.0 | 21.5 |
| 1996 | 31.4 | 42.4 | 50.1 | 33.7 | 25.4 |
| 1998 | 34.9 | 47.2 | 55.7 | 38.7 | 29.7 |
A great freighter aircraft that is unfortunately still partially dependent on the fortunes of the passenger aircraft. Values are, therefore, still falling but cargo traffic is picking up and any shortage is likely to be benefit the MD11 freighters.
|
October 2003 (US$ millions)
|
FUTURE VALUE (US$m)
|
||||
|
YEAR
|
LOW
|
MID
|
HIGH
|
2007
|
2010
|
| 1990 | 29.6 | 38.9 | 44.4 | 29.3 | 20.6 |
| 1992 | 32.9 | 43.4 | 49.4 | 33.3 | 23.6 |
| 1994 | 36.2 | 47.4 | 54.4 | 37.6 | 27.0 |
| 1996 | 39.6 | 52.1 | 59.4 | 42.2 | 30.9 |
| 1998 | 42.9 | 56.4 | 64.4 | 47.2 | 35.2 |
