Welcome to my latest video presentation. This accompanying article is an edited transcript; my video contains charts and more details.
I came across this recent news announcement and it stopped me in my tracks: L3Harris, one of the biggest names in defense technology, revealed that it’s teaming up with Joby Aviation, the air taxi startup, to build a military version of Joby’s vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft.
Now, think about that for a second. You’ve got a company best known for making the radios, sensors, and command systems that militaries rely on, joining forces with a startup that just a few years ago was pitching urban air taxis to commuters. That partnership alone shows you how blurred the line has become between military and commercial aviation.
According to the two companies in their joint press announcement this month, flight testing of this military-grade VTOL is set for fall 2025, with full-on demonstrations in 2026.
The aircraft itself is fascinating: a gas turbine hybrid, capable of low-altitude missions, and built with the flexibility to fly either with a pilot or completely autonomously.
In other words, the Pentagon is eyeing the same flying taxi technology that’s being designed to shuttle people across Los Angeles or New York in the next decade.
And that’s my bigger point here. This is how it always goes: the military takes a technology, shapes it for its own missions, and eventually that know-how trickles back into the commercial sector. Night vision, GPS, fly-by-wire, even the Internet—same story.
The VTOLs being tested for defense could be the very machines that make urban air mobility commercially viable. The military’s investment accelerates the timeline, pushes the safety standards, and creates the economies of scale.
When you see a defense giant like L3Harris working with Joby, don’t think of it as two unrelated worlds colliding. Think of it as one ecosystem. Military and civilian aviation aren’t separate lanes. And stories like this one make that clearer than ever.
Growing defense budgets and the close synergy between military and civilian aviation spill over directly into the way aircraft are valued and how much airlines (or lessors) can charge for lease rates, especially when it comes to in-demand Boeing and Airbus models.
Defense budgets are increasing exponentially around the world…and that affects commercial aviation.
Global military spending hit a staggering $2.7 trillion in 2024, according to the latest data by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). More than 100 countries increased their military spending last year, largely driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, turmoil in the Middle East, America’s schism with the Western alliance, and intensifying super-power rivalries.
The United States spends more on defense than any other country, by far. The Air Force receives the largest portion of the Armed Forces’ funding, exceeding a quarter of the total budget.
When governments spend more on defense, military programs fund cutting-edge avionics, materials, and propulsion systems. Many of those same technologies migrate into the commercial side, improving fuel efficiency, safety systems, communications, and cockpit automation.
Aircraft that can integrate or easily adapt to these advances, such as Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner or Airbus’s A350, become more attractive to airlines, which supports stronger asset values and higher lease rates. What’s more, airplanes that share common technology roots with military platforms tend to benefit from longer product life cycles.
Military-commercial synergy…
Look up at the next jet you board. The wing, the engines, even the screen showing your flight path—almost all of it was born in a military lab. Defense and civilian aviation aren’t opposites. They’re two sides of the same coin. What the Pentagon tests today, you’ll find in an airliner tomorrow.
From stealth composites to satellite navigation, the aviation industry has always been powered by military hand-me-downs. And the next wave is already rolling down the runway.
Think back. The jet engine? First roared in World War II fighters before powering the Boeing 707 and launching the Jet Age.
GPS? A Cold War satellite weapon system turned into the backbone of global navigation.
Fly-by-wire? Born in fighter cockpits, now standard on every Airbus and Boeing.
The pattern is unmistakable: defense takes the risk, civilian aviation scales the reward.
What’s next? Start with autonomy. Militaries are flying drones the size of airliners, controlled from thousands of miles away. That same technology will soon guide cargo planes across the oceans without a pilot onboard. For airlines struggling with pilot shortages, pilotless cargo could be the stepping stone to eventually reducing cockpit crews in passenger jets.
Would you board a two-pilot plane that only needs one human in the loop? The answer may not matter, because the technology already works.
Avionics advancements…
Cockpits are changing too. Military jets pioneered helmet-mounted displays, augmented reality overlays, and voice-activated controls. The civilian version? Simplified cockpits with fewer dials, more automation, and HUDs that make flying safer even in zero visibility. For passengers, that means fewer delays and fewer weather-related diversions.
Materials are another battlefield export. Stealth bombers needed light, heat-resistant composites to survive. Those same composites now make up most of the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350. The result? Lighter planes, longer range, better fuel efficiency, and cheaper tickets.
Next up: coatings that disperse radar and absorb heat. Today, they hide bombers. Tomorrow, they might make passenger planes quieter, cooler, and even less visible to storms on radar.
Then there’s efficiency. The U.S. military is testing autonomous refueling drones in mid-air, using software that can dock a fuel boom at 600 miles per hour. Translate that to civilian life, and you get automated ground operations: robotic tugs, AI-driven fueling trucks, and turnaround times cut in half.
If the battlefield is teaching machines to keep jets flying 24/7, expect commercial airlines to use the same tricks to squeeze every dollar from a 737.
And yes, speed. Militaries are pouring billions into hypersonic aircraft that can cross continents in minutes. Don’t expect Mach 10 airlines next year, but the technologies behind them—thermal shielding, new propulsion cycles, advanced flight controls—will trickle down into business jets and eventually commercial fleets. You might not fly to Tokyo in an hour, but your grandkids probably will.
The bigger picture is clear: aviation evolves along a defense-civil axis. Military programs solve the hardest problems under pressure. Civil aviation takes those solutions, makes them affordable, and puts them into mass use.
Every turbulence sensor, every digital cockpit, every satellite link in your seatback entertainment has a battlefield ancestor. And right now, the next generation is being tested in places most of us will never see.
The next time you hear about a killer drone in active combat, a hypersonic bomber under development, or the prospect of an artificial intelligence pilot flying solo, don’t dismiss it as military-only. History tells us it’s just the dress rehearsal.
