FOR CURRENT &
FUTURE AIRCRAFT VALUES

Assumptions

January 6, 2020

The listing of current and future values is based on the year of build. The essential assumption is that the aircraft are being sold as a single unit and between a willing seller and willing buyer for cash. The high and low figures represent adjustments for offer and sale prices, financing arrangements, specification differences, maintenance status and condition. These are not absolutes and distressed sales as well as sale and leaseback transactions may fall outside the figures indicated. Some transactions involving distressed sales on fully run out aircraft are considered exceptional and can fall outside the value ranges. Scrap values are also likely to fall outside the indicated range of values. Quantity discounts, particularly for the larger equipment, will attract sizeable discounts.

The values quoted below were prepared in late October 2019 in the context of a modestly improving market. The values listed below are Market Values not theoretical abstract Base Values and seek to balance transaction pricing, where available, and the considered worth of the asset. The Market Value is therefore not merely a reflection of the latest lowest available datapoint. The quoted future values are Market not Base values and attempt to predict cyclic trends when supply will exceed demand and vice versa. Values may therefore experience a rise as well as a fall in any projected year.

In addition to values, the original source for Aircraft Ratings is included for all aircraft types. The Aircraft Ratings – the first to be created and forming the industry standard – ranging from highest A++ to the lowest E–, reflect The Aircraft Value Analysis Company’s (AVAC) opinion as to the relative attraction of the asset over the short to medium term and is determined by a number of variables ranging from product life cycles to current and projected levels of availability.

The future values – four and seven years from 2019 – are expressed in current dollars having been adjusted for inflation approximating 2.0 percent (lower in the immediate years) and are based on the Mid Case current market values (AVAC also produce Best and Worst case projections reflecting different probability levels). The figures are for guidance only and are not intended to reflect actual recent market transactions – assuming that any reliable data exists. Rather the values represent the considered worth of the aircraft tempered by the prevailing market conditions.

The data has been extracted from the October 31st 2019 edition of the semi-annual Aircraft Values Basic 2019-2039 (Aircraft Values Pro – serial number based product also available), priced US$1,750.00 for 12 months web site access, by courtesy of The Aircraft Value Analysis Company. Telephone: +44 (0)203 468 5594, Fax: +44 (0)203 468 5596, pleighton@aircraftvalues.net; www.aircraftvalues.net; www.aircraftvalues.com

YEAR October 31st 2019 FUTURE VALUE Inflated
MID LOW HIGH 2023 2026
A300B4-200. Aircraft Rating: N/AWhile the A300B4 may seem to be a distant memory for many operators it needs to be seen in the context of a new entity seeking to compete with the likes of Boeing, McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed. The A300B4 provided the means by which Airbus learnt to successfully build, develop and market aircraft setting the scene for other products. Airbus was not a new company but an amalgamation of other European Aerospace Manufacturers with a wealth of experience. Nonetheless, the efforts of China and to a lesser extent Russia, have the potential to tread the same path. With the C919 China has the opportunity to gain experience but it will take a number of years to appreciate the nuances associated with supporting an aircraft in service and marketing.
N/A
A300F4-200 (Converted). Aircraft Rating: E-The number of A300F4s in service is now very small but there are a few providing good service. Low utilization means that the capital cost has to also to be low. The volume of the A300F4 allows lower yielding goods to be carried such as produce. The perishable products from the Middle East/Africa to Europe are a year-round phenomenon for which more expensive aircraft are not viable.
1975 0.77 0.42 1.09
1977 0.79 0.44 1.13
1979 0.82 0.45 1.16
1981 0.84 0.46 1.19
1983 0.86 0.47 1.22
A300-600. Aircraft Rating: E-The relevance of the -600 is questionable and has been for a decade or more. The variant was always seen as a stepping stone between the A300B4 and the A300-600R and like the B767-300 provided a means to fulfil the needs of a few operators. The values of the -600 have been at rock bottom for years. The Green Time on the engines is also hardly relevant.
1985 0.63 0.32 0.89
1987 0.72 0.37 1.02
1989 0.81 0.41 1.15
1991 0.90 0.46 1.28
A300-600R. Aircraft Rating: E-The fate of the -600R has been of gradually slipping into obscurity with any asset value also evaporating into the void. The type did not have the range to compete with the B767-300ER but there were enough operators requiring medium haul capability – the US to South America for example or Europe to the Middle East – to facilitate the sale of a reasonable number. The retirement profile though is perhaps worse than for some other widebodies.
1987 0.80 0.44 1.04
1989 1.11 0.61 1.44
1991 1.42 0.78 1.85
1993 1.74 0.95 2.26
1995 2.05 1.13 2.66 0.74
1997 2.36 1.30 3.07 1.18 0.30
A300-600RF. Aircraft Rating: D–While the market for the B767-300F has taken off that of the -600RF is moribund. To some extent Airbus perhaps failed to realize the potential of the medium haul freighter market both in terms of new production and conversions and has been somewhat behind Boeing. Of course, the -600R fleet suitably for conversion is that much more limited. Values of the -600RF previously fell by a significant amount because operators could not make money from the aircraft but in the last 4-5 years values have been more stable as the type offers value for money. In 2006 a new -600RF had a new price of more than $65 million but since then more than two thirds of its value has been lost.
1994 6.02 4.93 7.58 3.58
1996 8.22 6.74 10.35 5.03 3.51
1998 10.42 8.54 13.13 6.50 4.64
2000 12.62 10.35 15.90 8.00 5.81
2002 14.82 12.15 18.67 9.55 7.03
2004 17.02 13.96 21.45 11.14 8.31
2006 19.22 15.76 24.22 12.80 9.67
A310-200. Aircraft Rating: E–The A310-200 has all but disappeared from the fleet and placing a value on the aircraft is hardly appropriated.
1982 0.38 0.22 0.51
1984 0.46 0.27 0.62
1986 0.54 0.31 0.72
1988 0.61 0.36 0.83
A310-200F. Aircraft Rating: E++The A310-200F is no longer really a part of the worlds fleet but instead belongs to a bygone era. There is no market for the -200 and values have long been at scrap levels with even the engines failing to generate much in the way of residual value.
1982 2.01 1.37 2.58
1984 2.09 1.42 2.68
1986 2.17 1.48 2.78
A310-300LGW. 153t. CF6. Aircraft Rating: EThe A310-300 belongs to a previous era albeit one which Boeing is seeking to recreate with the B797. The values of the A310 are at virtual scrap levels and have been for some time. Even the engines are not worth that much. There remains some life in the -300 still but not necessarily in terms of asset values.
1985 0.41 0.25 0.58
1987 0.65 0.39 0.91
1989 0.89 0.53 1.24
1991 1.12 0.67 1.57
1993 1.36 0.82 1.91
1995 1.60 0.96 2.24 0.46
1997 1.84 1.10 2.57 0.76 0.14
A310-300HGW 164t. CF6. Aircraft Rating: EThe higher the weight the greater the range capbility of the aircraft which represents an attractive feature for an aircraft that offers widebody capacity for longer, thinner routes. The A321neo is not a widebody but the higher capacity limits afforded by the ACF configuration means that operators already have a choice other than waiting for the B797.
1988 1.12 0.69 1.55
1990 1.44 0.90 1.99
1992 1.77 1.10 2.44
1994 2.09 1.30 2.89 0.86
1996 2.42 1.50 3.34 1.21
A310-300F 164t. CF6. Aircraft Rating: D–The long thinner routes for freighters can see considerable profitability issues. Freighters tend to make money only in one direction and flying a return sector with low yielding freight may not cover even the cost of fuel let alone crewing costs. There are still a few in service. Values are essentially remaining stable as the type still has utility for some and the cost of alternatives is excessive.
1985 2.62 1.70 3.61
1987 2.86 1.86 3.95
1989 3.10 2.02 4.28
1991 3.35 2.17 4.62
1993 3.59 2.33 4.95
1995 3.83 2.49 5.29 1.85
1997 4.08 2.65 5.62 2.31 1.00
A318. CFM56. Aircraft Rating: D–The A318 remains part of the fleet if only just. The values have sunk ever lower. To some exent the indicated values are perhaps too low for the older examples given that the value of the engines can be greater than the complete airframe. With a reasonable amount of green time remaining on the engines then the value of the aircraft may be higher than might be expected.
2003 4.21 3.08 4.80 2.44 1.58
2005 5.85 4.27 6.67 3.54 2.43
2007 7.49 5.46 8.53 4.67 3.33
2009 9.12 6.66 10.40 5.86 4.29
2011 10.76 7.85 12.26 7.13 5.34
A319HGW. 70t. Aircraft Rating: C-The A319 may no longer be in production but the type still has more than a credible role to play in meeting the demands of operators who require a smaller mainline aircraft. The values of the aircraft at the older end of the spectrum are once again dependent on the time remaining on the engines. Values of the youngest aircraft – not that there have been many deliveries in recent years – are also falling faster than for mid life aircraft. The aircraft is facing considerable pressures from the A220 while the A319neo is essentially in production in name only.
1996 4.23 3.12 5.08 2.03 0.70
1998 5.54 4.09 6.65 3.13 1.46
2000 6.85 5.06 8.22 3.98 2.53
2002 8.16 6.02 9.80 4.84 3.16
2004 9.47 6.99 11.37 5.73 3.82
2006 10.78 7.96 12.94 6.66 4.52
2008En 13.46 11.17 14.40 8.59 5.95
2010En 17.38 14.43 18.60 11.40 8.08
2012En 21.30 17.68 22.79 14.40 10.41
2014En 25.22 20.93 26.98 17.66 13.04
2016En 29.14 24.18 31.18 20.93 15.81
2018En 33.06 27.44 35.37 23.90 18.57
A319ER. 75.5t. Aircraft Rating: CThe higher the weight the greater the payload range. The greater the range the more likely that the baggage of passengers will be greater limiting cargo space. The true A319ER comes with additional fuel tanks rather than just the additional weight and it is the tanks that usually warrant a premium.
2002 9.25 7.03 10.82 5.50 3.62
2004 10.51 7.99 12.30 6.37 4.26
2006 11.77 8.95 13.77 7.27 4.95
2008En 14.36 11.92 15.29 9.17 6.37
2010En 18.37 15.25 19.56 12.06 8.56
2012En 22.38 18.58 23.84 15.14 10.95
2014En 26.40 21.91 28.11 18.49 13.66
2016En 30.41 25.24 32.39 21.85 16.51
2018En 34.43 28.57 36.66 24.89 19.35
A319neo. Aircraft Rating: C+The premium attributed to the A319neo has thus far been muted. The lack of orders is an issue going forward for residual values. Airbus is clearly promoting the A220 while keeping the A319neo as an opportunity should a customer require fleet commonality. The values of the aircraft are likely to weaken. The A319 represents an important slot on the production line and Airbus can easily secure a much higher margin for an A320 or A321. This makes it inevtiable that Airbus will not be seeking to discount the A319 to secure orders.
2019 39.27 35.34 40.84 28.46 22.72
A220-100. Aircraft Rating C++The orders for the -100 are not as great as might be wished but that is to be expected given that the trend has been to upsize to reduce seat mile costs. The values of the aircraft may have actually risen now that Airbus is in charge having previously been lower due to concerns over the future direction of the program.
2016 26.03 23.69 27.59 18.52 13.98
2018 31.02 28.23 32.88 22.24 17.28
A220-300. Aircraft Rating B–The values of the -300 are considered to have actually improved more recently as it has become more apparent that Airbus has the motivation to make it work rather than just remove a competitor from the market. The -300 may still have a few issues but there is notable enthusiasm from operators. The -300 is more favored because of its greater capacity. More seats means lower seat mile costs which means greater competitive element. The aircraft has an excellent interior. Airbus is seemingly seeking to ensure that the range of the A220 can meet the demands of operators when considering longer sectors on thinner routes. The weight of the aircraft will therefore likely be increasing but this should not be an issue for units that have already been delivered.
2016 29.32 26.09 31.08 21.02 16.12
2018 34.92 31.07 37.01 25.21 19.90
A320LGW. 73.0T -A1/-5A1/-5B4. Aircraft Rating E/D+/B–With the problems of the MAX, this means that operators have continued to seek out older aircraft. Yet, despite the demand there are still a good many in storage – and have been for some time so are not merely transitioning between operators. Overall though the decline in A320 values is relatively modest particularly in the context of A320neo deliveries.
1988 0.76 0.53 0.95
1990 2.29 1.60 2.87
1992 3.83 2.68 4.78 1.10
1994 5.36 3.75 6.70 2.08
1996 6.90 4.83 8.62 3.74 1.47
1998 8.43 5.90 10.54 5.32 2.67
2000 9.97 6.98 12.46 6.40 4.31
2002 11.51 8.05 14.38 7.50 5.14
2004 13.04 9.13 16.30 8.65 6.00
2006 14.58 10.20 18.22 9.84 6.93
2008En 18.24 15.14 19.70 12.47 8.94
2010En 22.38 18.58 24.17 15.69 11.45
2012En 26.53 22.02 28.65 19.13 14.20
2014En 30.68 25.46 33.13 22.89 17.33
2016En 34.82 28.90 37.61 26.63 20.61
2018En 38.97 32.34 42.08 29.98 23.85
A320-200HGW. 77.0 tonne CFM56. Aircraft Rating: B–With a higher MTOW, Sharklets and the latest iteration of the engines, then the range of the aircraft is significant. The majority of A320s delivered in the final years of the program feature sharklets. The longer the sector length the greater the fuel saving provided by the sharklets. Of course, the shorter the range the lesser advantage that the A320neo holds over the A320ceo in terms of relative operating efficiency and capital cost. There has been a significant increase in the number of aircraft fitted with sharklets and SpaceFlex which facilitates a 186 seat configuration.
1990 2.78 1.94 3.47
1992 4.33 3.03 5.41 1.27
1994 5.88 4.12 7.35 2.29
1996 7.43 5.20 9.29 4.03 1.59
1998 8.98 6.29 11.23 5.66 2.85
2000 10.53 7.37 13.17 6.74 4.54
2002 12.09 8.46 15.11 7.86 5.38
2004 13.64 9.55 17.05 9.01 6.25
2006 15.19 10.63 18.99 10.22 7.18
2008En 18.91 16.83 20.32 12.94 9.29
2010En 23.23 20.68 24.98 16.29 11.90
2012En 27.56 24.53 29.63 19.88 14.78
2014En 31.89 28.38 34.28 23.80 18.03
2016En 36.22 32.24 38.94 27.71 21.46
2018En 40.55 36.09 43.59 31.21 24.84
A320neo. 73.5t. Aircraft Rating: B++The delivery of the A320neo continues apace but even so they cannot be expected to be make up the shortfall of MAX deliveries. Issues still affect the engines of the A320neo which is a major dissapointment given that the aircraft has been in service for five years. After five years the engine should be mature and be the subject of an upgrade. Nonetheless values are relatively stable and are falling by less than the annual average rate. There will be ever more customers who will select SpaceFlex which warrants a $900,000 premium for the 186 seat version.
2015 37.33 34.34 38.82 29.00 23.61
2017 43.69 40.19 45.43 34.49 28.78
2019 50.05 46.04 52.05 39.56 34.03
A321-100LGW. Aircraft Rating: E+The -100LGW has little to commend it and values have been falling for a decade or more. The -100LGW was always a problem aircraft being delivered in very few numbers and to too few customers. The age of the aircraft means that the type is likely to find remarketing difficult with parting out potentially being more probable every time a major check is required on the airframe and engines.
1994 1.79 1.31 2.15 0.52
1996 2.37 1.73 2.85 1.04 0.26
1998 2.96 2.16 3.55 1.56 0.61
2000 3.54 2.58 4.25 1.94 1.08
2002 4.12 3.01 4.95 2.33 1.36
2004 4.71 3.44 5.65 2.73 1.65
A321-200LGW. Aircraft Rating: C++/B—The production of the -200 is coming to an end but this does not mean that the values are suffering to any great extent. The type is very much in demand as operators seek to reduce seat mile costs by operating larger aircraft. The values of the aircraft built in the last few years are perhaps most vulnerable to change. The aircraft is very much the more preferred option when compared to the B737-900ER and for far too long Boeing perhaps were in denial as to the success of the A321 or perhaps Boeing knew that they had little potential for a response in the short term.
1996 5.06 3.89 5.66 2.98 1.12
1998 7.23 5.57 8.10 4.42 2.46
2000 9.40 7.24 10.53 5.88 3.90
2002 11.58 8.91 12.97 7.38 4.99
2004 13.75 10.59 15.40 8.93 6.13
2006 15.92 12.26 17.83 10.54 7.34
2008En 20.29 16.74 22.11 14.24 10.17
2010En 25.40 20.95 27.68 18.27 13.27
2012En 30.50 25.16 33.25 22.57 16.67
2014En 35.61 29.38 38.81 27.26 20.53
2016En 40.72 33.59 44.38 31.94 24.59
2018En 45.82 37.80 49.94 36.17 28.60
A321neo. 89t. Aircraft Rating: B++The proportion of A321neos being delivered in comparison to the total number of A320neo family members is forever rising. The aircraft type is proving itself to be particularly suited to a range operators. Operators are preferring to operate larger aircraft than add frequency – assuming that additional A320s can even be obtained. The new door configuration offers the opportunity to accommodate 240 passengers and more but there seem to be few that have taken this option. The A321neo though is opening up new routes that were previously the domain of either the B757 or widebodies. Boeing is clearly struggling to compete otherwise they would list orders for the B737-9 and B737-10. The LR is particularly favored though any thoughts of allowing a $5+ million premium over the 93.5 tonne version will not be well received in the wider market. The values will likely perform better than average though there will be improvements to both engine types in the coming years. The XLR will essentially replace the LR in 2023 as the XLR does not need to use the extra tanks installed in the cargo hold.
2016 50.63 47.08 53.16 39.86 33.01
2018 55.72 51.82 58.50 44.13 37.51
A330-200. Aircraft Rating: D+/CThe market for the A330-200 is not as good as it once was. The type has been replaced by the A330-800 which itself has not secured much support from the market. Values are falling by a rate greater than average and have been for some time. There has to be a recognition that while the type is being used in numbers, operators are acquiring new types that are acting as replacement capacity. The 238 tonne version warrants a $0.75 million premium. The 242 tonne version offers even greater versatility but this has not prevented a slippage in values.
1998 8.90 7.03 9.79 5.08 2.59
2000 11.18 8.83 12.29 6.51 3.93
2002 13.46 10.63 14.80 7.97 4.91
2004En 22.27 17.59 24.72 13.54 8.93
2006En 29.17 23.04 32.38 18.07 12.11
2008En 36.07 28.49 40.03 22.80 15.49
2010En 42.97 33.94 47.69 27.78 19.14
2012En 49.86 39.39 55.35 33.11 23.18
2014En 56.76 44.84 63.01 38.96 27.77
2016En 63.66 50.29 70.66 44.75 32.58
2018En 70.56 55.74 78.32 49.88 37.28
A330-200F. Aircraft Rating: C+The -200F has not been the success that the type seemed to suggest when originally delivered. This was really a major effort for Airbus in terms of seeking to be able to build a production freighter to rival the offerings from Boeing. However, the gamble has not paid off with 38 or the 42 orders satisfied. The arrival of converted units and the problems of the airfreight market per se have contributed to the lack luster performance of the aircraft.
2010 46.53 39.09 50.25 32.38 24.69
2012 52.97 44.49 57.20 37.84 29.29
2014 59.40 49.90 64.15 43.86 34.55
2016 65.84 55.30 71.11 49.78 40.04
2018 72.27 60.71 78.05 54.95 45.37
A330-300HGW. Aircraft Rating: D+ / C++The surge in demand for the -300 over the last decade was due to a need for capacity while Boeing sorted out the B787 and while operators waited for the A350. The A330-900 is now in service in numbers as well. As such values of the A330-300 have been deteriorating quite quickly and there is no sign that this trend is abating. Indeed, in some ways the indicated values are too optimistic given that the widebody market is relatively fragile with aircraft in storage and being parted out. The value of a new example is now well below $95 million, the same as it was more than 20 year ago.
1996 7.14 5.42 7.85 2.95
1998 9.17 6.97 10.08 5.26 2.07
2000 11.19 8.51 12.31 6.53 3.68
2002 13.22 10.05 14.54 7.83 5.18
2004He 25.79 20.89 27.85 16.05 10.73
2006He 33.93 27.48 36.64 21.50 14.59
2008He 42.07 34.07 45.43 27.18 18.69
2010He 50.20 40.66 54.22 33.16 23.12
2012He 58.34 47.25 63.01 39.57 28.01
2014He 66.48 53.84 71.79 46.60 33.57
2016He 74.61 60.44 80.58 53.56 39.41
2018He 82.75 67.03 89.37 59.74 45.12
A330-900. Aircraft Rating: BThe -900 offers a boost in terms of range and efficiency. Boeing was perhaps a bit slow in realizing that a market for the -900 existed and has therefore sometimes needed to offer a significant discouunt on its B787 given that the A330-900 was always seen as a cheap medium haul aircraft focussed on capacity rather than range. The values of the A330-900 should behave reasonably as long as the expectations are realistic.
2018 108.74 100.04 113.09 79.10 62.23
A340-200. Aircraft Rating: EThe A340-200 has little to commend it and values are all but at scrap levels.
1993 2.51 2.01 2.61 0.90
1995 2.95 2.36 3.07 1.54 0.45
1997 3.39 2.71 3.52 1.82 0.84
A340-300LGW. Aircraft Rating: EValues are continuing to fall whatever the green time remaining on the engines may be. The A340 may be in service with a reasonable number of operators but the values are virtually at scrap levels. At present, age related value differentials remain in place but it is doubtful that this can continue for any length of time. The last A340s were delivered just over ten years ago but have lost over 80 percent of their value even if the engines still have a considerable number of cycles remaining on the LLPs.
1996 2.35 1.71 2.46 1.02 0.30
1998 3.41 2.49 3.58 1.61 0.82
2000 4.48 3.27 4.70 2.22 1.24
2002 5.54 4.05 5.82 2.84 1.67
2004En 9.71 8.06 10.34 5.70 3.81
2006 En 10.38 8.62 11.06 6.21 4.21
2008 En 11.06 9.18 11.78 6.74 4.64
A340-500LGW. Aircraft Rating: E++The market for the -500 has imploded and there is little or no appetite for the aircraft. Rolls-Royce will likely have lost considerable revenue on their support program model given the number that have been parked. There is limited demand for the Rolls engine and calculating the green time based on OEM LLP list prices is not only a fools errand but also highlights the inadequacy of some appraisal methodologies.
2002 5.69 4.44 6.55 3.45 2.16
2004 9.02 7.04 10.37 5.70 3.76
2006H 12.95 10.10 14.89 8.29 5.63
2008H 15.97 12.46 18.36 10.46 7.24
A340-600L. Aircraft Rating: D–The values of the -600 may still be falling but the type still has some credibility for a few operators. The price of fuel is a constant concern but as long as it does increase by too much then the fuel burn is offset by the much higher cost of alternative equipment. The values of the aircraft have fallen by a considerable amount and may yet fall further. Eventually less than 100 aircraft were delivered making it marginalized.
2002 5.71 4.57 6.57 3.47 2.17
2004 9.40 7.52 10.81 5.95 3.95
2006 13.08 10.46 15.04 8.51 5.81
A350-900. Aircraft Rating: B++The -900 is proving to be a popular aircraft and orders continue to be placed. The type has versatility given that there are a number of different weights. The values need to be fully cognizant of the difference that the weight can make with the lower weights requiring a $7 million discount compared to the standard weight. The operator base is spreading. The size of the aircraft means that future remarketing will likely be relatively easy but there are a few more years yet before the first examples enter the used market. China Eastern has become the first airline to accept the A350 with touch screen displays.
2014 100.08 91.07 104.08 67.49 50.71
2016 120.75 109.88 125.58 83.39 63.99
2018 141.42 128.69 147.08 98.22 77.35
A350-1000. Aircraft Rating: BThe -1000 is on the verge of being selected for the Qantas Sunrise project – direct flights to London and New York – although Boeing be working hard to prevent this. The -1000 is performing well. However, being virtually the same size of the B777-300ER means that remarketing opportunities will be relatively restricted going forward and this will likely impacted residual values.
2017 153.69 145.24 159.07 111.04 88.51
2019 167.13 157.94 172.98 120.77 99.10
A380IGW 569t. Aircraft Rating: DThe market for the A380-800 is dire with more aircraft destined to be retired and parted out in the coming years representing a premature end for what is a great aircraft. The issues with climate change would seem to favor larger aircraft that offers lower seat mile costs and carbon footprint particularly as fewer airports may be built or extended in the coming years. The values of the A380 have tumbled to perhaps close on the worst case forecasts. The cessation of production represents the worst possible scenario for the type notwithstanding a grounding. There is no coming back from this and even re-engining will do nothing for the values f the existing -800.
2007 64.75 53.74 67.66 35.43 24.45
2009 84.95 70.51 88.77 47.43 33.16
2011 105.15 87.27 109.88 60.12 42.62
2013 125.34 104.04 130.98 73.79 53.14
2015 145.54 120.80 152.09 88.38 64.85
2017 165.74 137.56 173.20 102.17 76.71
2019 185.94 154.33 194.31 114.65 88.64
B717-200. Aircraft Rating: D-The B717 is a good aircraft that offers efficiency for a few operators. And that is the issue; there are too few operators. Therefore a number of aircraft will likely remain with existing operators until being parted out. Airbus will likely succeed in making the A220 an Airbus product, something that Boeing had no wish to do.
1999 4.45 3.78 5.56 2.15 1.01
2001 5.14 4.37 6.43 2.55 1.25
2003 5.84 4.96 7.30 2.96 1.50
2005 6.54 5.56 8.17 3.39 1.77
B737-300HGW EFIS. Aircraft Rating: EThere can be no escaping how weak the market is for the B737 Classic even taking into account the problems surrounding the MAX. Yet in terms of values they have fallen so far as to make them largely stable. The market for the -300 is far from strong not least because the youngest is now more than 20 years of age.
1985 0.85 0.51 1.15
1987 1.00 0.60 1.34
1989 1.14 0.68 1.53
1991 1.28 0.77 1.72
1993 1.42 0.85 1.91 0.27
1995 1.56 0.93 2.10 0.42
1997 1.70 1.02 2.29 0.66 0.11
1999 1.84 1.10 2.48 0.83 0.24
B737-300SF. Aircraft Rating: D++The freighter market continues to see reasonable demand for the -300SF and aircraft are being transacted and moving between operators. The values are therefore steady and it is expected that there will be little change in the near future even with the development of the B737-800 freighter. There exists considerable demand on a regional and domestic basis not least because of the increase in internet shopping. Disparate distribution warehouses cannot always be serviced by road.
1986 2.79 2.04 3.77
1988 3.21 2.34 4.33
1990 3.62 2.64 4.89
1992 4.04 2.95 5.45 1.24
1994 4.45 3.25 6.01 2.03
1996 4.87 3.55 6.57 2.64 1.13
1998 5.28 3.86 7.13 2.91 1.77
B737-700HGW Wing. 153,000lbs. Aircraft Rating: C/CThe production of the -700 may have ceased with deliveries in recent years being negligible, but the type remains in demand with a variety of operators. The concentration with Southwest is a concern in the coming years. The size of the aircraft is suited to the needs of a number of operators which is likely to remain constant thus providing the rationale for few orders in this category.
1997 6.38 4.98 7.53 3.67 1.46
1999 7.93 6.18 9.35 4.66 2.61
2001 9.47 7.39 11.17 5.67 3.70
2003 11.01 8.59 12.99 6.72 4.46
2005 12.55 9.79 14.81 7.80 5.27
2007 14.10 11.00 16.63 8.93 6.12
2009/3 16.76 13.91 19.45 10.53 7.37
2011/3 19.94 16.55 23.13 12.86 9.18
2013/3 23.12 19.19 26.82 15.39 11.19
2015/E 27.93 24.57 31.00 19.23 14.49
2017/E 31.86 28.04 35.36 22.30 17.23
B737-400HGW EFIS. Aircraft Rating: E+The market for the passenger version of the -400 is sporadic at best given that the aircraft is now between 20-30 years of age. There is some life left for those in good condition, but the market is inevitably favoring alternative types. It is sometimes worth mentioning that the A320 and B737-400 were being produced in numbers at the same time. The type is being sought after for those seeking a good candidate for conversion but these are few in number.
1988 1.14 0.84 1.47
1990 1.45 1.08 1.87
1992 1.77 1.31 2.28 0.36
1994 2.08 1.54 2.69 0.53
1996 2.40 1.77 3.09 0.90 0.21
1998 2.71 2.01 3.50 1.36 0.45
B737-400SF. Aircraft Rating: C-Depsite the arrival of the -800SF, the -400SF continues to be sought after by a range of operators. Moreover, the type is being actively traded and as such is considered to be sufficiently liquid as to allow values to remain virtually unchanged. There is however, little opportunity for an actual improvement given the weight of the competition in the coming years. The development of the A320/B737-800 freighter conversion programs are notable events. Low utilisation will ensure that the type remains viable although a number of countries do have age limits which may, or may not, be rigously enforced.
1988 5.20 3.95 6.92
1990 5.76 4.37 7.66
1992 6.31 4.79 8.39 2.48
1994 6.86 5.22 9.13 3.93
1996 7.42 5.64 9.86 4.30 2.31
1998 7.97 6.06 10.60 4.68 3.03
B737-800HGW Winglets. Aircraft Rating: B– / B-The decline in -800 values has been partially negated by the problems surrounding the MAX but a fall is still evident. The aircraft is very much in demand with relatively few in storage. One of the most notable positive elements is the value of the engines. The demand for the engines and their price, means that there is a floor in the value of the older -800s, perhaps as much as $7-9 million depending on the time remaining on the LLPs. The production of the -800 is coming to a close and this will mean that the values of the youngest are vulnerable. Interestingly, Lufthansa Technik have developed an engine wash program that takes only three hours and extends the on wing time by some 15-20 percent while reducing fuel consumption. The later built -800s have better engines and reliability. The move to freighter conversion will keep availability to manageable levels.
1998 9.11 7.11 10.48 5.55 3.23
2000 10.99 8.57 12.64 6.81 4.67
2002 12.87 10.04 14.80 8.11 5.65
2004 14.75 11.51 16.97 9.45 6.67
2006 16.63 12.97 19.13 10.84 7.76
2008 18.51 14.44 21.29 12.31 8.93
2010/3 24.26 20.38 26.69 17.54 12.80
2012E 29.95 25.75 31.74 21.93 16.61
2014E 34.21 29.42 36.26 25.92 20.00
2016E 38.48 33.09 40.79 29.87 23.56
2018E 42.74 36.76 45.31 33.39 27.04
B737-8 Aircraft Rating: B++The values of the MAX are holding steady despite the continued grounding. Values will be impacted should some 20 percent of the orderbook be cancelled and as the media are likely to raise the profile of the MAX’s return to service, then there will be some anxiety as to whether there will be passenger aversion or whether ticket price will be the most important consideration.
2017 47.73 45.82 50.11 37.79 30.24
2019 53.39 51.25 56.05 42.49 35.15
B737-500HGW EFIS. Aircraft Rating: E-The -500 lost is position in the market place well over a decade ago, if not two decades ago. This segment of the market has been dominated by the larger regional jets. The values are at scrap levels with even the engines not having much value. The aircraft is either too small or too large for regional operators.
1990 1.09 0.79 1.39
1992 1.31 0.94 1.66 0.23
1994 1.52 1.09 1.93 0.34
1996 1.73 1.25 2.20 0.60 0.07
1998 1.95 1.40 2.47 0.91 0.23
B737-600LGW. Aircraft Rating: D–There have been too many variants launched on the basis of seeking to replace an earlier model but the market structure is not a constant – it is changing all the time. The values are very low and are perhaps too low given the value of the engines which will be used on the -700 and -800 subject to the thrust being increased which may cost $1-2 million per engine. When considering older aircraft it has to be noted that the engines may have less than half life and will likely be nearer 20-25 percent.. Those DAC powered aircraft that have been upgraded to -7/3s or -7E however, warrant a sizeable premium.
1998 2.63 1.87 2.95 1.30 0.65
2000 3.61 2.57 4.05 1.90 1.08
2002 4.60 3.26 5.15 2.52 1.52
2004 5.58 3.96 6.25 3.16 1.99
B737-900. Aircraft Rating: D–The marginalization of the -900 has been a constant and values have inevitably been at a low ebb. Quality engines may however, see a price in excess of $10 million even for older aircraft. Most have been prinked by installing winglets which are more of interest to the existing operator than the wider market. There are only 52 in service.
2000 6.60 5.22 7.07 3.84 2.41
2002 7.51 5.93 8.03 4.45 2.86
2004 8.41 6.64 9.00 5.08 3.32
B737-900ER. Aircraft Rating: C–/C–The values of the -900ER are fading and have been for many years. The lack of an expansive operator base is a concern when remarketing falls due. Against the A321 it has failed. The aircraft is facing pressures going forward if some of the main existing operators opt for the A320 family.
2007/3 17.38 13.90 18.59 11.29 8.07
2009/3 20.90 16.72 22.36 13.89 10.10
2011/3 24.42 19.54 26.13 16.66 12.31
2013/3 27.95 22.36 29.90 19.66 14.79
2015/E 34.79 28.88 37.23 26.74 20.71
2017/E 39.70 32.95 42.48 31.01 24.61
2019/E 44.61 37.02 47.73 34.88 28.53
B747-200SF. JT9D/PW4000 LGW Aircraft Rating: E–There is little to commend the type to the investor community.
1976 0.34 0.14 0.60
1978 0.40 0.17 0.69
1980 0.45 0.19 0.79
1982 0.51 0.21 0.89
1984 0.57 0.24 0.99
1986 0.63 0.26 1.10
1988 0.68 0.29 1.20
1990 0.74 0.31 1.30
B747-300. Aircraft Rating. E–There is nothing of relevance for the -300. Values have long been at levels whereby one of the few means of disposal seems to be via a donation to a museum.
1983 0.25 0.11 0.35
1985 0.26 0.11 0.37
1987 0.27 0.12 0.39
1989 0.29 0.12 0.41
B747-400. CF6 Aircraft Rating: E++The -400 may still be in operation but as a vehicle for asset based financing, the departure gate has firmly closed. The existing operators have already signaled that the type will be retired in the coming years. The engines do not even have that much value. Finding homes for aircraft being disposed off by existing operators can be something of a futile exercise. Airlines have been less enthusiastic in carrying marginal economy passengers and have instead been seeking to improve yields with smaller capacity aircraft.
1989 2.47 1.65 2.96
1991 3.45 2.31 4.14
1993 4.43 2.97 5.32 1.33
1995 5.42 3.63 6.50 2.37 0.80
1997 6.40 4.29 7.68 3.30 1.50
1999 7.39 4.95 8.87 3.88 2.46
2001 8.37 5.61 10.05 4.48 2.89
2003 9.36 6.27 11.23 5.10 3.35
B747-400D. Aircraft Rating: E–The experience of the -400 illustrates all too easily the dangers of producing a variant for a limited market. The type quickly moved into the marginalized segment of the market.
1991 0.93 0.66 1.08
1993 1.46 1.04 1.69 0.36
1995 1.99 1.41 2.30 0.81 0.15
B747-400F. Aircraft Rating: C-While there still exists demand for the aircraft, there is less enthusiasm that might have been. The uncertainty of the trade war between the U.S. and China continues to have a direct impact on the demand for the aircraft and as such there are some still in storage. Aircraft may however, return to service should there be a thawing of relations. Values are therefore holding reasonably stable. The nose loading door is still seen as most desirable as this enables very quick loading and unloading as well as greater flexibility in terms of the type of payloads carried.
1993 12.05 9.52 13.26 6.27
1995 14.81 11.70 16.29 7.82 4.60
1997 17.56 13.87 19.32 9.40 6.75
1999 20.32 16.05 22.35 11.00 7.99
2001 23.08 18.23 25.38 12.66 9.29
2003 25.83 20.41 28.42 14.36 10.65
2005 28.59 22.59 31.45 16.13 12.09
2007 31.35 24.76 34.48 17.99 13.63
2009 34.10 26.94 37.51 19.96 15.31
B747-400BCF. Aircraft Rating: C-The market for the BCF is not as good as for the -400F because of the lack of a nose loading door. Yet, as the -400F is put to work and availability falls to zero then the -400SF/BCF is next in line.
1989 9.81 7.07 11.87
1991 10.90 7.85 13.19
1993 11.98 8.63 14.50 5.26
1995 13.07 9.41 15.81 6.89 3.39
1997 14.15 10.19 17.13 7.55 5.38
1999 15.24 10.97 18.44 8.21 5.91
2001 16.33 11.75 19.75 8.91 6.47
2003 17.41 12.54 21.07 9.62 7.06
B747-8F. Aircraft Rating: B–The ability to keep on churning out the -8F says much for the Boeing sales teams. The values of the aircraft are falling but not as fast as might have been the case. Suppliers need volume and that is sadly lacking with the -8F. The values of new aircraft have fallen and this has had an impact on used values.
2010 96.24 83.73 100.09 66.21 52.25
2012 110.90 96.48 115.33 78.29 62.66
2014 125.56 109.23 130.58 91.57 74.52
2016 140.22 121.99 145.82 104.67 86.95
2018 154.87 134.74 161.07 116.23 99.07
B747-8I. Aircraft Rating: D-The downward trend for the values of the A380 have followed those of the -8I. Values of the -8I have been falling since the aircraft was introduced as it became apparent that the market had either moved to the A380 or B777-300ER. Those that remain in service are likely to be converted to VVIPs, scrapped or converted.
2011 76.33 59.53 80.14 49.82 37.59
2013 90.93 70.92 95.47 61.12 46.85
2015 105.53 82.31 110.80 73.17 57.17
2017 120.13 93.70 126.13 84.56 67.61
B757-200 (RB211). Aircraft Rating: D–The B757 keeps on giving. With production having ended some 15 years ago and the oldest being nearly 40 years, the type has had one of the longest service lives with primary carriers. Values have been falling by a very modest amount in the last few years. The aircraft is of course in the process of being replaced but there are still some years to go before this is complete. The Pratt & Whitney engine is not so disadvantaged as longer on wing life offered by the RB211 is not so relevant given the product life cycle of the type.
1982 1.64 1.17 2.05
1984 2.18 1.54 2.72
1986 2.71 1.92 3.38
1988 3.24 2.30 4.05
1990 3.77 2.68 4.71
1992 4.30 3.05 5.38 1.57
1994 4.83 3.43 6.04 2.59
1996 5.36 3.81 6.71 2.93 1.55
1998 5.90 4.19 7.37 3.27 2.10
2000 6.43 4.56 8.03 3.63 2.37
2002 6.96 4.94 8.70 3.99 2.65
B757-200ER (250,000lbs RB211). Aircraft Rating: D–The -200ER still plies the longer sectors which is testament to the reliability of the engines – and the absence of alternatives. The aircraft is inevitably losing ground to the A321 but values can be expected to remain reasonable for a few more years yet although a rise in availability may be an issue. The B797 is progressing but for the time being operators will have to settle for the B737-10.
1987 3.28 2.43 4.00
1989 3.80 2.81 4.64
1991 4.32 3.20 5.27
1993 4.84 3.58 5.91 2.20
1995 5.37 3.97 6.55 2.95 1.27
1997 5.89 4.36 7.18 3.29 2.08
1999 6.41 4.74 7.82 3.64 2.34
2001 6.93 5.13 8.46 4.00 2.61
B757-200SF. Aircraft Rating: C-The freighter B757 remains one of the success stories and values have been able to remain relatively unchanged for some time even with the ebb and flow of trade talks.
1982 1.91 1.51 2.22
1984 3.09 2.44 3.58
1986 4.26 3.37 4.95
1988 5.44 4.30 6.31
1990 6.61 5.23 7.67
1992 7.79 6.15 9.04 3.19
1994 8.97 7.08 10.40 5.34
1996 10.14 8.01 11.76 6.12 3.47
1998 11.32 8.94 13.13 6.92 4.72
2000 12.53 9.87 14.49 7.74 5.34
2002 13.67 10.80 15.85 8.58 5.99
B757-300LGW. Aircraft Rating: E+The aircraft is suited to a few and very few operators and efficiency is in the eye of the operator rather than the wider community. There have a very few instances of when the aircraft has been successfully traded but it is to be noted that the type is not seen as suitable for asset based financing due to the lack of wider appeal. The -300 is not a niche aircraft, it is a marginalized aircraft. A single data point should not be used as the basis for asset based values.
1998 5.76 4.32 6.33 3.47 2.19
2000 7.00 5.25 7.70 4.31 2.81
2002 8.24 6.18 9.07 5.18 3.46
B767-200. Aircraft Rating: E+The type may be lacking a replacement but values are at parting out levels.
1981 0.27 0.14 0.32
1983 0.41 0.21 0.49
1985 0.55 0.28 0.66
1987 0.68 0.35 0.83
1989 0.82 0.42 1.01
1991 0.96 0.49 1.17
B767-200ER HGW. Aircraft Rating: E+This is an interesting segment of the market and is one which Boeing is seeking to target with the slow moving B797. The -200ER is now some 30 years of age and retirement has been beckoning for some years. There are a few in service and the lack of a direct replacement makes it more difficult to contemplate retirement but retention does not necessarily translate into asset value.
1984 1.42 0.88 1.72
1986 1.57 0.97 1.90
1988 1.72 1.07 2.08
1990 1.87 1.16 2.27
1992 2.02 1.25 2.45 0.56
B767-300. Aircraft Rating: E+The aircraft was always seen as being of limited appeal as demonstrated by the very limited number of customers. As a D check approaches this may the point at which the operator says enough is enough.
1986 1.07 0.68 1.22
1988 1.34 0.86 1.53
1990 1.62 1.03 1.84
1992 1.89 1.21 2.15 0.45
1994 2.16 1.38 2.46 0.82
1996 2.44 1.56 2.78 1.30 0.39
1998 2.71 1.73 3.09 1.49 0.68
2000 2.98 1.91 3.40 1.69 0.93
B767-300ER LGW. Aircraft Rating: D–The age of the -300ER has now surpassed 30 years and retirement should have beckoned many years ago and indeed, a number have been parted out. But the demand still persists as newer aircraft are expensive and require patience and resources to introduce. The low gross weight examples have values that are sufficient low as to go beyond the mere weight and engine thrust ratings. A lower weight usually means that the aircraft are being used on shorter sectors with lower hour to cycle ratios. This significantly reduces the life span of the aircraft and limits their attraction as candidates for freighter conversion. The aircraft are therefore more likely to be retired that much sooner than the higher gross weight aircraft. This is not being taken into account by some who see little difference between the high and low gross weight -300ERs.
1988 2.42 1.79 2.74
1990 3.03 2.24 3.42
1992 3.63 2.69 4.11 0.95
1994 4.24 3.14 4.79 1.68
1996 4.84 3.58 5.47 2.67 0.97
1998 5.45 4.03 6.15 3.07 1.62
2000 6.05 4.48 6.84 3.47 2.16
2002 6.65 4.92 7.52 3.88 2.47
B767-300ER HGW. Aircraft Rating: D-The aircraft manages to keep on going and remains in relative demand. With a low capital costs and known maintenance, the type can still be efficient on the medium haul sectors where the fuel component of direct operating costs is of lesser significance. While the premium that was applied to the value in the past has long since dissipated, the aircraft is still being traded with some ease. The -300ER is a good aircraft and age cannot seem to wither it nor custom stale its infinite variety; other aircraft cloy the appetites they feed but the B767-300ER makes hungry where most it satisfies. A great many are fitted with winglets. The 407,000lb or even the 412,000lb versions of the -300ER have of course been much more popular as the payload range is better. In terms of IFE airlines may prefer to spend $3-4 million on upgrades rather than $110 million on a new aircraft in the form of the A330-900.
1988 3.23 2.39 3.74
1990 5.07 3.75 5.88
1992 6.92 5.12 8.02 2.38
1994 8.76 6.48 10.17 4.44
1996 10.61 7.85 12.31 6.40 3.06
1998 12.45 9.22 14.45 7.62 5.16
2000 14.30 10.58 16.59 8.87 6.09
2002 16.14 11.95 18.73 10.16 7.05
2004 17.99 13.31 20.87 11.49 8.07
2006 19.83 14.68 23.01 12.88 9.16
2008 21.68 16.04 25.15 14.34 10.33
2010 23.52 17.41 27.29 15.91 11.62
2012 25.37 18.77 29.43 17.62 13.07
B767-300ERF. Aircraft Rating: CProduction of the B767 freighter keeps on going but pricing is likely to be lower than the $70-80 million that continues to be suggested. The values indicated below may be on the low side but some orders are large and why would an operator be willing to pay 4-5 times as much for a new aircraft compared to a 10-15 year old example. Reading too much into the cost of acquisition rather than the asset value may lead to problems. The B767 freighter both as a converted aircraft and as a production aircraft remains very much sought after and conversions are taking place. The importance of a few sources of demand should not be overestimated however as other widebodies are waiting the wings. Low utilization will keep them current for that much longer.
1995 11.64 10.01 12.92 7.03 4.54
1997 14.54 12.50 16.14 8.91 5.85
1999 17.44 15.00 19.36 10.84 7.22
2001 20.34 17.49 22.58 12.82 8.63
2003 23.25 19.99 25.80 14.85 10.11
2005 26.15 22.49 29.02 16.96 11.68
2007 29.05 24.98 32.25 19.17 13.35
2009 31.95 27.48 35.47 21.51 15.17
2011 34.86 29.98 38.69 24.03 17.19
2013 37.76 32.47 41.91 26.81 19.49
2015 40.66 34.97 45.13 29.79 22.08
2017 43.56 37.46 48.35 32.41 24.59
2019 46.46 39.96 51.58 34.58 27.03
B777-200. Aircraft Rating: E++Boeing tried hard upon launch to promote the -200 as a great aircraft that would remain a core part of the fleet given its reasonable range but this has not proved to be the case. The aircraft was always on the fringes of the market and even the values indicated below may be seen as being high. The type enjoyed the Ripple Effect for perhaps too many years but eventually the whirlpool dragged down values to a more appropriate level.
1995 3.67 2.65 4.11 2.02 0.67
1997 4.80 3.46 5.38 2.74 1.44
1999 5.93 4.27 6.64 3.47 2.22
2001 7.05 5.08 7.90 4.22 2.78
2003 8.18 5.89 9.16 5.00 3.36
B777-200ER. Aircraft Rating: D-The values of the B777-200ER continue to decline at a faster than average rate particularly for the younger examples. The value of the engines are perhaps significantly lower than the green time remaining suggests. The widebody sector is much more fragile than the narrowbody arena and with both Airbus and Boeing seeking to place new widebodies, the displacement of the -200ER continues apace. Existing operators will likely continue to operate the aircraft until retirement. Single digit values are much more likely going forward. The weights can vary and engine type plays a significant role. There has been concern that the Trent powered aircraft may be less liquid but transactions still take place for the specific airframe/engine combination. The majority have a weight in excess of 632,000lbs.
1996 6.89 4.82 7.99 4.07 2.15
1998 9.85 6.89 11.42 5.98 3.90
2000 12.80 8.96 14.85 7.93 5.29
2002 15.76 11.03 18.28 9.93 6.73
2004 18.72 13.10 21.71 11.99 8.24
2006 21.67 15.17 25.14 14.13 9.84
2008 24.63 17.24 28.57 16.37 11.56
2010 27.58 19.31 32.00 18.75 13.43
2012 30.54 21.38 35.43 21.33 15.51
B777-200LR. Aircraft Rating: D–The values of the -200LR are now not too dissimilar to those of the -200ER after initially being some $10-15 million higher. The -200LR, like the A340-500, was always likely to be a marginalized rather than niche aircraft, a fate that was not initially seen by some and which therefore led to unrealistic values for too long. The B777-200LR has bene replaced by the B787 and A350.
2005 21.26 15.52 22.96 12.99 9.79
2007 24.49 17.88 26.45 15.23 11.63
2009 27.72 20.23 29.93 17.60 13.62
2011 30.95 22.59 33.42 20.14 15.82
2013 34.17 24.95 36.91 22.91 18.30
B777-200LRF. Aircraft Rating: B–The -200F remains a great aircraft and values are holding stable despite the arrival of the first B777SFs in a few years time. This strength though needs to be seen in the context of a changing market structure that will see new types emerging. The lack of orders for the B777X in recent years will see Boeing accelerate the development of the freighter version.
2008 71.88 56.79 76.19 51.38 38.45
2010 84.14 66.47 89.19 61.44 46.54
2012 96.40 76.15 102.18 72.24 55.50
2014 108.65 85.84 115.17 84.11 65.72
2016 120.91 95.52 128.16 95.81 76.41
2018 133.17 105.20 141.16 106.09 86.82
B777-300. Aircraft Rating: E++With the problems of Cathay then the -300s that are with the operator may be vulnerable to retirement sooner than expected but it is hoped that this is not the case. The values have always been under pressure.
1998 8.96 6.45 9.67 5.28 3.69
2000 12.21 8.79 13.18 7.37 5.28
2002 15.46 11.13 16.70 9.50 6.93
2004 18.71 13.47 20.21 11.70 8.66
2006 21.97 15.82 23.72 13.98 10.49
B777-300ER HGW 775,000lbs. Aircraft Rating: C++There can be no escaping how the market for the -300ER has changed in the last five years going from being one of the most favored to now being viewed as one of the most vulnerable. The very size of the aircraft limits the remarketing opportunities and with the discounts secured by customers, the low book values permit low sales prices. There have of course been a significant number of sale and leasebacks and this will be an issue going forward as operators seek a lease extension at low rates or owners find that there is considerable competition when leases expire. The arrival of the B777-9 is not too distant and Boeing has significantly cut production of the -300ER in the run up to the service entry of the new type. The values of new examples are now fortunate to be more than $150 million and those built a decade ago are now worth less than half that amount. The 775,000lb version is by far the most popular weight selection and there is an Enhanced version that was introduced in late 2016.
2003 40.12 32.09 42.92 25.55 18.47
2005 52.50 42.00 56.17 33.96 24.83
2007 64.87 51.90 69.42 42.69 31.56
2009 77.25 61.80 82.66 51.84 38.79
2011 89.63 71.71 95.91 61.57 46.68
2013 102.01 81.61 109.15 72.13 55.54
2015 114.39 91.51 122.40 83.43 65.44
2017/E 130.62 108.42 138.46 95.82 77.02
2019/E 145.00 120.35 153.70 106.40 88.05
B787-8. Aircraft Rating: C+The values of the -8 continue to decline and as it becomes all too apparent that the aircraft does not offer the advantages of the -9 in terms of capacity and relative efficiency. Also the market structure is favoring larger aircraft. The number of new orders for the -8 in recent years has been very limited and delivery rates are also much lower. Boeing is seeking to revitalize orders but this may be on the basis of lower pricing as a means of the combating the A330neo.
2011 63.75 49.73 68.85 40.49 30.33
2013 77.53 60.47 83.73 50.72 38.62
2015 91.30 71.22 98.61 61.63 47.84
2017 105.08 81.96 113.48 72.02 57.23
2019 118.85 92.71 128.36 81.49 66.69
B787-9. Aircraft Rating: B++Alongside, the A350-900, the -9 remains the most desirable of widebody of assets. Values are declining by only a modest amount. Orders and deliveries are clearly focused on this aircraft variant and in terms of remarketing, there will be particular ease as it is neither too large or too small for a wide range of operators. The -9 is however, still marred by the issues with the Trent engine which still sees some grounded. The discussion around strategic discounting is perhaps ignoring the fact that most orders are secured at much higher levels and that sale and leasebacks may see pricing nudging $150 million or more.
2014 97.27 85.60 103.11 68.06 50.80
2016 116.74 102.73 123.74 83.64 63.76
2018 136.20 119.86 144.38 98.14 76.78
B787-10. Aircraft Rating: BDeliveries are mounting and while the range is limited, there are a significant number of routes that require capacity rather than absolute range. The value trend for the type though is likely to be more severe than for the -9 but not as steep as for the -8. The range of the -10 is likely to be increased in the coming years and it remains to be seen whether existing examples will be included in the upgrade.
2018 143.62 134.29 149.37 103.64 79.32
Avro RJ85. Aircraft Rating: E+The era of the Avro RJs has long since passed and values are falling as a result.
1993 1.13 0.79 1.29 0.28
1995 1.16 0.81 1.34 0.43 0.00
1997 1.20 0.84 1.38 0.45 0.05
1999 1.23 0.86 1.42 0.48 0.07
2001 1.27 0.89 1.46 0.51 0.09
Avro RJ100. Aircraft Rating: E+There have too many parked for too long. The capacity of the RJ100 is notable though some long term operators have signaled their intent to move to alternative types in the coming years though this will not likely impact already weak values.
1993 1.22 0.85 1.40 0.32
1995 1.26 0.88 1.45 0.49 0.03
1997 1.30 0.91 1.49 0.51 0.08
1999 1.34 0.94 1.54 0.54 0.12
2001 1.38 0.97 1.59 0.57 0.14
Canadair CRJ200ER. Aircraft Rating: E-There can be considerable variation in values depending on the condition and location of the aircraft. The last ten years has not been kind to the 50 seaters due to scope creep which saw the average size of the regional fleet increase.
1996 0.56 0.37 0.71 0.07
1998 0.77 0.52 0.98 0.20
2000 0.98 0.66 1.26 0.33
2002 1.20 0.80 1.53 0.47 0.08
2004 1.41 0.94 1.80 0.61 0.19
Canadair CRJ700ER. Aircraft Rating: DJust as the 50 seat market was a victim of scope creep and concentration in the U.S. so too have the 70 seaters experienced an acceleration in residual value declines due to the same negatives. The market for the type remains sporadic with demand sometimes allowing used units to be absorbed and at other types, allowing the aircraft to lay idle. Values therefore continue to wobble.
2000 3.29 2.60 3.69 1.91 1.11
2002 3.98 3.15 4.46 2.39 1.47
2004 4.67 3.69 5.23 2.89 1.84
2006En 6.72 5.17 7.19 4.11 2.75
2008En 8.76 6.75 9.37 5.53 3.84
2010En 10.80 8.32 11.56 7.03 5.01
2012En 12.84 9.89 13.74 8.63 6.29
2014En 14.89 11.46 15.93 10.38 7.75
Canadair CRJ900En. Aircraft Rating: C–The stagnation of scope creep means that the CRJ900 has been granted something of a reprieve even as the production of the aircraft is due to cease in the near future now that the aircraft has been acquired by MHI. Values of the youngest are set to decline.
2005 6.85 5.41 7.88 4.26 2.85
2007 8.67 6.85 9.97 5.55 3.83
2009 10.49 8.29 12.06 6.91 4.88
2011 14.14 11.73 15.41 10.01 7.40
2013NG 16.57 13.75 18.06 12.15 9.20
2015NG 19.01 15.77 20.72 14.18 11.04
2017NG 21.44 17.80 23.37 16.04 12.89
2019NG 23.26 19.30 25.35 17.07 14.16
Canadair CRJ1000. Aircraft Rating: D++The problem for the aircraft was that orders were too limited to allow for ease of remarketing. The operator base is very restricted and with cessation of production the values will be likely continue to decline at a faster than average rate.
2010 13.04 10.56 14.34 8.27 5.86
2012 15.43 12.49 16.97 10.08 7.31
2014 17.81 14.43 19.59 12.07 8.95
2016 20.20 16.36 22.22 14.05 10.67
2018 22.58 18.29 24.84 15.82 12.37
Embraer 135ER. Aircraft Rating: E-The 30 seat commuter jet offered much – at least in an era of heavily regulated fares. Unfortunately, the type arrived at the time that deregulation made it necessary for smaller aircraft to succeed on their own merits.
1999 0.87 0.65 1.08 0.20
2001 1.15 0.86 1.43 0.42 0.02
2003 1.43 1.07 1.79 0.67 0.18
2005 1.71 1.28 2.14 0.86 0.35
Embraer 145ER. Aircraft Rating: E-Like the CRJ200, the market for the ERJ145 was always dependent on the U.S. market and scope clauses. With the erosion of both factors then this has meant that the last ten years has seen a continue decline in values.
1996 0.90 0.66 1.07 0.29
1998 1.08 0.80 1.29 0.41 0.03
2000 1.27 0.94 1.51 0.53 0.13
2002 1.45 1.07 1.72 0.66 0.22
2004 1.63 1.21 1.94 0.79 0.32
2006 1.82 1.34 2.16 0.92 0.43
Embraer 170. Aircraft Rating: D+The last few years have seen very few if any orders for the E170 and few deliveries. The used market is still seeing some demand but the emphasis is on larger aircraft. The aircraft is therefore facing issues when placed onto the used market and values are ever weaker.
2003 4.72 3.68 5.10 2.98 1.90
2005 6.74 5.25 7.28 4.43 2.98
2007 8.76 6.83 9.46 5.93 4.12
2009 10.77 8.40 11.63 7.51 5.34
2011 12.79 9.98 13.81 9.17 6.67
2013 14.81 11.55 15.99 10.98 8.16
2015 16.83 13.13 18.17 12.90 9.81
2017 18.85 14.70 20.35 14.70 11.48
Embraer 175. Aircraft Rating: C- / C+The E175 is essentially operating in a vacuum – which is a problem for an engine that relies on oxygen – as it centers on the artifically created U.S. market. If the U.S. market behaved in the same manner as the European or Asian segments, there would be very few orders for the type. With scope creep having come up to the barrier, then the E175 will be in demand for some time yet except that the E175E2 is now under development and the SpaceJet will soon gain certification.
2004 5.97 4.72 6.51 3.91 2.59
2006 8.40 6.64 9.16 5.70 3.93
2008 10.83 8.56 11.81 7.56 5.35
2010 13.26 10.48 14.46 9.51 6.88
2012 15.70 12.40 17.11 11.60 8.57
2014E 20.61 16.69 22.46 15.83 11.98
2016E 23.09 18.70 25.16 18.18 14.09
2018E 25.57 20.71 27.87 20.27 16.15
Embraer 190AR. Aircraft Rating: C-The market for the E190 is fragile with a number arriving onto the used market at virtually the same time. The large number of aircraft being made available has therefore inevitably affected values. The E2 is also being delivered albeit not in the numbers that would effect immediate replacement.
2005 7.93 6.34 8.56 5.01 3.31
2007 10.94 8.75 11.82 7.14 4.88
2009 13.96 11.17 15.08 9.36 6.55
2011 16.98 13.58 18.34 11.72 8.36
2013 20.00 16.00 21.60 14.25 10.38
2015 23.01 18.41 24.86 16.96 12.63
2017 26.03 20.83 28.11 19.51 14.90
Embraer 190E2. Aircraft Rating: BThe E2 is providing good service and a number are now in service but perhaps not as many as might have been expected. The number of orders is also very limited which is a major concern although of course the Boeing sales machine is only now getting into its stride. The initial trend for residuals is not as promising as the performance of the E2 suggests.
2018 31.20 28.70 32.76 23.59 19.04
Embraer 195AR. Aircraft Rating: C–The E195 was always expected to see considerable demand but this failed to materialize as the aircraft was too large for some operators and too small for others. The values of the E195 are therefore experiencing a sustained decline.
2006 9.84 7.78 10.83 6.07 4.20
2008 12.89 10.19 14.18 8.17 5.81
2010 15.94 12.60 17.54 10.39 7.54
2012 19.00 15.01 20.89 12.75 9.44
2014 22.05 17.42 24.25 15.33 11.60
2016 25.10 19.83 27.61 17.90 13.87
2018 28.15 22.24 30.96 20.22 16.10
Embraer 195E2. Aircraft Rating: B-The E195E2 has garnered the majority of orders for the E2 program which is something of a surprise. The E195E2 has been stretched such that it offers more seats and even better economics. There have thus far been very few deliveries. There remains an element of concern over residuals although Aercap has ordered 50 and Aircastle 13 which should allow the operator base to expand.
2019 36.52 33.60 38.34 27.55 22.55
Fokker 100LGW. Aircraft Rating: E–The Fokker 100 belongs to a previous era and asset value has long since passed. here can also be variation in the pricing with some in good condition attracting much higher prices.
1987 0.93 0.48 1.21
1989 0.96 0.50 1.25
1991 0.99 0.51 1.29
1993 1.02 0.53 1.32 0.26
1995 1.05 0.54 1.36 0.40
MD82. Aircraft Rating: E–The MD82 is still in service with a variety of operators but this has little relevance to asset value.
1981 0.21 0.09 0.27
1983 0.23 0.10 0.31
1985 0.26 0.11 0.34
1987 0.28 0.12 0.37
1989 0.31 0.13 0.40
1991 0.33 0.14 0.44
1993 0.35 0.15 0.47
1995 0.38 0.16 0.50
1997 0.40 0.17 0.53
MD83. Aircraft Rating: E–The operator base is still spread wide and there can be an equally wide variation in pricing. But for the MD83 pricing has supplanted value as value implies that it can be viewed as an asset.
1985 0.24 0.12 0.31
1987 0.29 0.15 0.38
1989 0.35 0.18 0.45
1991 0.40 0.21 0.52
1993 0.45 0.23 0.59
1995 0.50 0.26 0.66 0.04
1997 0.56 0.29 0.73 0.09
1999 0.61 0.32 0.80 0.12
MD88. Aircraft Rating: E–The MD88 is relevant to a few operators but not many just as pricing is of importance to a minority.
1987 0.36 0.19 0.45
1989 0.45 0.23 0.56
1991 0.53 0.27 0.67
1993 0.62 0.32 0.77 0.06
1995 0.70 0.36 0.88 0.15
1997 0.79 0.40 0.98 0.23
MD90. Aircraft Rating: E–The MD90 could not effectively compete with the A320 and B737-800 but those that are operated continue to provide viable service. Values have long been at scrap levels.
1994 1.23 0.65 1.60 0.43
1996 1.30 0.69 1.69 0.55 0.09
1998 1.38 0.73 1.79 0.61 0.16
MD11SF. Aircraft Rating: E–The trijet is not something that immediately springs to mind when seeking a freighter.
1990 2.14 1.43 2.71
1992 2.37 1.59 3.01 1.19
1994 2.60 1.74 3.30 1.34
1996 2.83 1.90 3.60 1.50 0.80
1998 3.06 2.05 3.89 1.66 0.92
2000 3.29 2.21 4.18 1.82 1.04
Superjet 100. Aircraft Rating: E–The Superjet initially gained a foothold outside of its primary domestic market and sphere of influence but its footing has now been lost and with it the potential for significant asset value retention and relevance.
2009 8.55 6.50 9.57 5.81 4.06
2011 11.40 8.66 12.77 8.03 5.78
2013 14.26 10.83 15.97 10.40 7.69
2015 17.11 13.00 19.16 12.94 9.81
2017 19.96 15.17 22.36 15.37 11.97
2019 22.82 17.34 25.55 17.61 14.16

 

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