In this new video presentation, John Persinos examines the present and future of autonomous aviation.
Imagine stepping onto a plane with no pilots in the cockpit. The cabin doors close, the engines spool up, and you’re whisked into the sky entirely by artificial intelligence. It sounds like science fiction, but the aviation industry is actively testing how far autonomy can go.
The question is not whether we can build a fully autonomous passenger plane, but whether people will trust it.
The technology is already ahead of the psychology. Most modern airliners already fly themselves for the majority of the journey. Autopilot, auto-throttle, and automated landing systems are standard.
Pilots today spend much of their time monitoring computers rather than wrestling the controls. In fact, if you’ve flown recently, chances are your landing was assisted or even performed by automation.
Significant long-term growth…
Kings Research expects the global autonomous aircraft market to surge past $28 billion by 2031, expanding at a rapid compound annual growth rate of 21.46% between the forecast period of 2024 and 2031.
That projection covers more than just uncrewed aerial vehicles. It encompasses three distinct but interconnected categories: military drones that are already central to defense strategy, commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), aka drones, that are proliferating in logistics and surveillance, and the longer-horizon development of autonomous passenger aircraft.
UAVs, also referred to as unmanned aerial systems (UAS), are already transforming military aviation and avionics. Indeed, the bulk of today’s revenues come from the defense and UAV sectors, where autonomy is already operational and proven.
Civilian passenger airliners with fully autonomous capabilities, by contrast, are not yet flying. What exists are prototypes, testbeds, and incremental deployments of automation in cockpits. These developments include artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted taxiing, automated flight management systems, and increasingly sophisticated decision-support tools for pilots.
The passenger aircraft segment is in the research and development phase rather than commercial deployment, but it represents the most transformative potential for the industry.
The common thread across all three sectors is the accelerating role of AI. Next-generation algorithms are enabling aircraft to process complex data inputs in real time, adapt to unexpected conditions, and “learn” from experience to improve performance.
For UAVs, this translates into longer range, improved mission success, and lower operator workload.
For passenger aviation, it points toward a future where autonomy bolsters safety, reduces pilot fatigue, and eventually allows airlines to reimagine operating costs and fleet economics.
Projected growth in autonomous aviation reflects a two-speed market: fast revenue expansion today in defense and UAVs, with a parallel investment in autonomous passenger aviation that, while not yet commercial, is laying the groundwork for the next leap forward in air travel.
At the same time, breakthroughs in energy storage are set to transform the industry. Longer-lasting batteries will extend flight times and range, overcoming one of the sector’s biggest hurdles and unlocking new levels of operational flexibility.
So why don’t we just remove the pilots altogether? The main barriers are regulation, safety redundancy, and human acceptance. Regulators like the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) move carefully because aviation has zero tolerance for mistakes.
The economics are a powerful driver. Airlines face chronic pilot shortages, rising labor costs, and the need for greater efficiency. Removing or reducing cockpit crews could save billions. But savings on paper are meaningless if passengers refuse to fly. Surveys consistently show most travelers are not yet ready to board a pilotless plane, even if the statistics say it might be safer. Trust takes time, and in aviation, perception is as important as performance.
Public resistance…
UBS Evidence Lab recently surveyed 8,000 people to gauge attitudes toward pilotless flights. The results, published in June 2025, showed a clear generational divide.
Younger travelers are more open to the idea of stepping aboard an aircraft without pilots, while older passengers remain far more hesitant. Ironically, the latter group is also the one most likely to afford such a service, which means winning them over will be crucial.
The UBS report noted, “We found resistance from respondents to flying in pilotless planes. Perhaps to facilitate adoption, a flight could be flown by an autonomous pilot, with a human pilot available to take over in emergencies. The balance between human and computer control of a flight may have to be an evolution rather than a revolution.”
Then there’s the safety question. Two pilots in the cockpit mean redundancy. If one is incapacitated, the other takes over. If we move to a single pilot with ground-based support, or eventually no pilot at all, that redundancy must be engineered into the software and the aircraft itself.
OEMs ramp-up their R&D…
Companies such as Airbus, Boeing, and smaller startups are experimenting with what are known as single-pilot operations. This is a stepping-stone toward full autonomy.
Airbus has demonstrated its Autonomous Taxi, Takeoff, and Landing system. Boeing has tested AI copilots that can interpret flight plans and respond to air traffic control. Embraer is testing autonomous aircraft as well.
Even smaller firms like Xwing and Reliable Robotics are flying remotely operated cargo planes today, which serve as test beds before passengers come on board.
There’s also the issue of cybersecurity. A plane without pilots must be hardened against hacking attempts. Engineers are working on encryption, isolated flight systems, and AI that can detect anomalies in real time. Still, regulators remain cautious, because a single breach could have catastrophic consequences.
So when will we see it? Experts predict cargo and regional flights will lead the way in the next decade. Passengers may follow in the 2030s or 2040s, but the transition will likely be gradual. First we’ll see more single-pilot flights with heavy ground support. Then certain routes or aircraft types may run fully autonomous operations. And only after years of uneventful flying will the flying public begin to accept the idea that the cockpit can remain empty.
In a sense, the future is already here. Every time you ride in a driverless airport shuttle, summon an autonomous rideshare, or watch a drone fly itself, you’re seeing the same principles at work. Aviation is simply the most cautious frontier, because the stakes are so high.
Will we ever see fully autonomous passenger planes? The answer is yes. The harder question is when. It won’t be tomorrow, and it won’t arrive all at once. Autonomy will sneak in through cargo holds, regional hops, and hybrid cockpits before you ever notice. By the time the day comes when you step onto a jet with no one at the controls, it may feel so normal, you’ll wonder why you ever doubted it.
Editor’s Note: This article is a condensed transcript. My video contains the full report, including charts.
