China has always thought big: dynasties, walls, and cities the size of small countries. Now the world’s second-largest economy wants to add one more conquest to the list: the skies.
For decades, Airbus and Boeing have dominated commercial aviation as the uncontested leaders in aircraft manufacturing. China is moving onto the runway, determined to carve out its place in an industry that is as demanding as it is lucrative.
The question is, can China pull it off? Building an airliner isn’t like cranking out inexpensive consumer goods. Every rivet, every line of software, every safety certification is another potential banana peel in the great leap forward.
Yet, thanks to Boeing’s recent missteps and a simmering trade war that’s rewritten supply chains, China’s chances suddenly look a lot less far-fetched.
So, are we witnessing the dawn of a new aerospace titan or just a lot of sky-high hype? In this presentation, I’ll walk you through the latest wins and setbacks in Beijing’s grand ambition to challenge the long reign of Western aviation. The story promises turbulence and a few surprises.
The Post-Pandemic Surge
In 2025, global aviation is thriving once again, five years after the COVID pandemic brought the industry to a standstill.
The silence of empty runways is now a distant memory. Terminals are once again vibrant crossroads of the world. In the years since the pandemic, China’s aviation sector has not only rebounded but it has also surged ahead.
In terms of revenue, the global commercial aviation market is valued at $441.34 billion so far in 2025, according to Precedence Research. These figures represent the total annual value of commercial aircraft delivered and contracted for sale worldwide. The market is projected to reach $601.51 billion dollars by 2034.
In 2024, the Asia-Pacific region dominated the global total with the largest market share at 40%. Overall, the increasing rate of air travel among the population has been promoting the market’s growth in the Asia-Pacific. China is the dominant factor in this projected growth.
China accounts for more than 23% of the region’s market share, by far the biggest slice of the pie. Asia-Pacific market is expected to grow due to the rising disposable income in the population and accelerating demand for faster commutes and transportation.
Government investment in aircraft manufacturing and infrastructure will also play a major role.
The Chinese Diaspora
With a robust domestic foundation, China’s major airlines have become global powerhouses, connecting continents and setting new standards for international travel. The big three, Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern, are launching new long-haul routes and connecting more cities than ever before.
For the vast and influential Chinese diaspora, the post-pandemic expansion of direct flights is more than a matter of convenience. It is a profound re-connection.
For years, traveling back to home provinces often involved multiple layovers, long transit times, and complex itineraries. Now, Chinese airlines are launching direct flights from hubs such as Los Angeles and New York to secondary cities in China, dramatically shortening journeys. This has immense personal and cultural significance for families separated by continents.
These new direct routes are carefully chosen. They often link cities with large overseas Chinese populations directly to their ancestral hometowns.
Chinese leasing firms have gone on a global shopping spree. Companies such as ICBC Leasing, BOCOM Leasing, and CDB Leasing are now among the top 10 largest aircraft lessors in the world, managing fleets worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Their strategy is simple yet effective: offer competitive financing terms and flexible leasing arrangements that are often more attractive than those of their Western counterparts. This has allowed them to win major contracts worldwide, such as financing fleets of Airbus 320neos for European carriers.
This shows a fundamental shift in the global flow of capital, with Chinese money fueling airlines’ fleet expansion worldwide.
New Regulatory Clout
For nearly a century, aviation safety standards and air traffic management protocols have been largely defined by Western bodies such as the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).
China, for a long time a follower of these standards, is now actively shaping them. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is no longer just a domestic regulator. It’s becoming an increasingly influential voice in international forums like the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
A key area of influence is in the certification of new aircraft.
The CAAC’s independent certification of the COMAC C919 in 2022 was a landmark moment. It signaled that China now has the technical expertise and regulatory maturity to validate the airworthiness of a complex modern airliner on its own terms.
Now the CAAC is pursuing Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements (BASAs). Under a BASA, regulators in one country agree to accept the certification standards of the other. Securing such an agreement for the C919 with the FAA or EASA would open global markets and validate the CAAC’s standards on the world stage.
Major Obstacles Remain
COMAC and the nation’s leasing sector have made headlines, but the path to global dominance is still steep and full of obstacles. First, there’s the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
These aren’t just companies. They’re an entire ecosystem.
Airlines, lessors, pilots, and maintenance crews are all built around decades of Western aircraft experience.
Take the C919. It’s an impressive feat, no doubt. But compared to the A320neo or B737 MAX, it still lags in fuel efficiency, avionics, and proven operational reliability.
Then there’s the supply chain and technology.
China has made progress in engines, avionics, and materials, but many critical components still depend on Western expertise and suppliers. China’s climb in aviation is impressive, but ambition alone won’t topple entrenched giants.
What’s more, Boeing in August entered advanced negotiations with Chinese officials for a potential sale of up to 500 aircraft, which would represent Boeing’s largest order from China in years and possibly represent a turning point in U.S.-China trade relations. The deal is likely to include a mix of single aisle workhorses and widebody jets for long-haul routes.
Meanwhile, here’s the kicker: COMAC isn’t meeting its expected targets. Deliveries are lagging significantly behind projections, especially for the C919.
Right now, the question isn’t whether China’s commercial aviation sector can gain global market share and grow, but realistically, how far and how fast it can reach. The opportunities are vast, but so are the obstacles.
Editor’s Note: This article is an edited and condensed transcript of my video presentation. The video contains the full report, including charts.
